Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotskyi, expressed “optimism” about the country’s agricultural production on Thursday 1 September, despite the challenges posed by the Russian assault and rising production costs, including high fertiliser prices.
On the export side, the target of shipping between 5 and 6 million tonnes (t) of cereals and oil has not yet been met, he said.
Taras Vysotskyi said in a video conference that the sowing season ended in June, with a 25% drop in the area planted to spring cereals compared to 2021. “Our forecast is: 10 million t of sunflower seeds, 3.5 million t of soybeans (4.5 million t, according to the latest forecasts) and 27 million t for maize (compared to almost 40 million t in 2021). We need 7 million tonnes of maize for our consumption”.
Ukrainian farmers have started planting winter cereals. A good rapeseed crop is expected, according to the Ukrainian deputy minister.
Last April, Ukraine’s export capacity (cereals, oils) was 1 million t per month. In August, they are about 3 million t (without the help of the Black Sea ports). Thanks to the international grain agreement, 1.3 million t were shipped via Black Sea ports (so around 4.3 million t). “But it’s not enough: before the war, the average was 6 million t per month”, said Vysotskyi.
Taking into account the internal consumption of cereals and oil (20 million t), “we have the possibility to export during this campaign about 65 or 70 million t. A minimum capacity of 5 million t per month on average or up to 6 million t is therefore required. This is our goal”, he said.
Finally, he estimated the volume of grain storage shortages in Ukraine at 12 million t: 20 million t, minus the 8 million that could be exported by November via Black Sea ports. “It’s not so critical”, concluded Taras Vysotskyi. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)