NATO leaders will meet in Madrid on Tuesday 28 June for a three-day summit, described as “transformative” by the organisation’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg.
Strategic Concept. At the summit, leaders are expected to adopt the Alliance’s new Strategic Concept, 12 years after the previous one. “Our new concept will guide us in an era of strategic competition”, Mr Stoltenberg told the media on Monday 27 June. He said the document would make it “clear that Allies consider Russia as the most significant and direct threat to our security” and would also address China for the first time and the challenges it posed. The concept will also cover NATO’s evolving approach to a number of other threats and challenges, including terrorism, cyber and hybrid warfare.
According to a diplomat, negotiations on the concept were continuing on Monday, with some Allies wanting the EU’s role to be recognised in the document, as NATO’s role is recognised in the EU’s ‘Strategic Compass’ (see EUROPE 12975/32).
Strengthening of the eastern flank. The Leaders will also strengthen forward defences with the “biggest overhaul of our collective deterrence and defence since the Cold War”, according to Mr Stoltenberg.
He said that some battle groups in the eastern part of the Alliance will be enhanced to brigade level. “We will transform the NATO Response Force and increase the number of our high-readiness forces to well over 300,000”, the Secretary General added.
In addition, he said, the Alliance will decide to boost its ability to reinforce in crisis or conflict, including more pre-positioned equipment and stockpiles of military supplies, more forward-deployed capabilities such as air defence, strengthened command and control and upgrade defence plans, with forces pre-assigned to defend specific Allies. “These troops will exercise together with home defence forces. They will become familiar with local terrain, facilities, and our new pre-positioned stocks so that they can respond smoothly and swiftly to any emergency”, said Mr Stoltenberg.
The summit is also expected to create a new €1 billion NATO Innovation Fund to invest in emerging dual-use technologies. The Allies will also agree to cut greenhouse gas emissions for NATO as an organisation (see EUROPE 12651/23).
Defence expenditure. As is traditional at summits, the Allies are expected to review their defence spending.
According to figures published on 27 June, for the eight consecutive year, European Allies and Canadians will increase their defence spending in 2022. “By the end of the year, they will have invested well over 350 billion US dollars extra since we agreed our defence investment pledge in 2014”, Mr Stoltenberg said.
Spending for the Europeans and Canada is expected to increase by 1.2% this year. In total, for 2022, the Allies are forecasted to spend $1,051 billion ($723 billion for the US).
Nine Allies meet or exceed the 2% minimum target: Greece, the United States, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, the United Kingdom, Latvia, Croatia and Slovakia. “Nineteen Allies have clear plans to achieve this by 2024 and five more have made concrete commitments to achieve it thereafter”, Mr Stoltenberg said.
In Spain, which is hosting the summit, defence spending is expected to represent only 1.01% of GDP in 2022 and only 0.58% in Luxembourg.
See the expenditure details: https://aeur.eu/f/2ci
Partnerships. On Wednesday, the Allies will hold a session with their counterparts from Sweden, Finland, the EU (the presidents of the European Commission and the European Council will be at the summit), Georgia, but also from Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea.
The leaders, who will discuss with their Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, are also expected to agree on a comprehensive programme of enhanced assistance to Ukraine. This programme “will include substantial deliveries of support in areas such as secure communications, anti-drone systems and fuel”, the Secretary General announced. “In the longer term, we will help Ukraine transition from Soviet-era military equipment to modern NATO equipment and further strengthen its defence and security institutions”, he said.
Leaders will also address the food crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Many Allies are looking for ways to get grain out of Ukraine.
The Allies could also revisit the situation in Kaliningrad.
Leaders are expected as well to adopt new measures to support Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Mauritania and Tunisia.
Finally, the Allies will discuss threats and challenges from the south, re-engage in the fight against terrorism and consider their response to the growing influence of Russia and China in the southern neighbourhood.
Accession of Finland and Sweden. The summit will also be an opportunity to discuss Finland and Sweden’s application for NATO membership, which has been blocked by Turkey (see EUROPE 12955/3). After talks between high-level officials from the three countries at the Alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on Monday, the Turkish and Finnish presidents and the Swedish prime minister will meet in Madrid on Tuesday to try to move the issue forward. “The summit was never a deadline, but the leaders will be there, so it is an opportunity to see how much progress we can make”, Mr Stoltenberg stressed. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)