NATO defence ministers are meeting in Brussels on Wednesday 16 and Thursday 17 February to discuss, among other things, the risk of Russian aggression against Ukraine, which Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg described on Tuesday 15 February as “the most serious security crisis we have seen in Europe for decades”.
While the US has announced that a Russian attack is imminent (see EUROPE 12890/2), there were reports on Tuesday that Russian troops were returning to their garrisons.
The NATO Secretary General was cautious. “There are signs from Moscow that diplomacy should continue. This allows for cautious optimism”, he told the media, adding that he had seen no signs of de-escalation on the ground. “So far, we have not seen a reduced military presence on the ground”, he said, explaining that there needed to be a “significant and sustainable” withdrawal of forces, troops, but especially heavy equipment.
According to Mr Stoltenberg, Russia could conduct an invasion of Ukraine without any warning time at all. “Everything is now in place for another attack, but Russia still has time to back off, to stop preparing for war and start working on a peaceful solution”, he warned.
The NATO Secretary General hoped for a rapid response from Russia to the proposals NATO sent it on 26 January (see EUROPE 12878/1). “We are prepared to discuss NATO-Russia relations, European security, including the situation in and around Ukraine, as well as risk reduction, transparency and arms control”, he said.
Asked about possible Russian recognition of the ‘People’s Republics’ of Donetsk and Lugansk, the Secretary General warned that this would be a further violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and the Normandy agreements. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell, condemned the vote in the Russian Duma calling on President Vladimir Putin to recognise the republics as independent entities.
The NATO Ministerial will also address the need to further enhance the Alliance’s defensive posture. In this context, Mr Stoltenberg welcomed France’s offer to lead a new NATO battle group in Romania.
The Ministers will also discuss the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea region with their Georgian and Ukrainian counterparts. Russia is currently conducting military exercises in the area.
The Allies will also meet with the Ministers of Finland, Sweden and the EU High Representative to discuss, among other things, enhanced cooperation between the EU and NATO. A third EU/NATO declaration is to be adopted in the coming months.
Ministers will discuss load sharing across the Alliance. According to the Secretary General, over the past 7 years, Europeans and Canadians have increased their defence spending “with an additional 270 billion since 2014”.
Finally, the Allies will discuss NATO’s next Strategic Concept, which will be adopted at the Madrid Summit in June. This plan for the next decade must take into account the new global realities. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)