The EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs will meet on Monday 24 January in Brussels to discuss, in particular, the security situation in Europe, Syria, Libya, but also Mali, Sudan and the Indo-Pacific region.
Europe’s security. A few days after their discussion at their informal meeting in Brest (see EUROPE 12869/2), the ministers will once again address the security situation in Europe, notably the tensions on the Ukrainian border.
They are expected to take stock of the latest diplomatic meetings (see EUROPE 12873/21), including the Thursday 20 January meeting of the Quad format (France, Germany, United Kingdom and United States) and the Friday 21 January meeting in Geneva between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The latter is expected to brief his European counterparts by videoconference on Monday, during lunch. The aim of the current discussions is to find out how to prevent a Russian attack and, if one should occur, how to react to it.
“There is a large number of Russian troops (at the border), with a risk of miscalculation and accidents. It is very important to work on de-escalation”, stressed a senior EU official. The ministers are also expected to discuss how to respond to Russian proposals on a security architecture.
According to the senior EU official, ministers will not discuss sanctions, as there is an agreement among Member States that action will be taken in the event of aggressive action by Russia.
“We are ready to take measures, the nature of which must be calibrated”, said a European diplomat. While discussions are underway between Member States and, according to one diplomat, “work is accelerating”, several sources declined to comment on what might be put in place in the event of aggression and what kind of Russian action would be sanctioned, so as not to give any indication to the Russian side.
A senior official, recalling the sanctions imposed in 2014, warned that the response would be “very quick and clear”. The Europeans have repeatedly announced that any further Russian aggression will have massive consequences and a high cost.
The EU Council is expected, as well, to adopt conclusions that will reiterate the ten principles agreed to in an informal way in Brest.
Libya. The ministers will also discuss Libya, where the elections scheduled for 24 December have been postponed sine die.
Diplomats say ministers are expected to reiterate the importance of holding these elections as soon as possible and consider how to help ensure they take place. Support for the ceasefire, the importance of the withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign forces from the country, and support for the United Nations in implementing the international agenda will also reportedly be reiterated.
Syria. The EU Council will also discuss the short- and long-term challenges in Syria with UN Special Envoy Geir Pedersen, who will present his step-by-step approach to a political solution. The situation on the ground is at a deadlock, as is the political process, but a new dynamic is emerging around the conflict, with some Arab countries seemingly ready to normalise their relationship with Syria.
“The ministers will give an update on the assessment of the situation and the actions that need to be taken, within the framework of the European positions”, explained a European diplomat.
The discussion is expected to take stock of the different dimensions of the crisis, as it has been more than a year since the ministers last discussed Syria. In particular, they will reportedly recall the European position, support the UN efforts and discuss support for the Syrian population and civil society.
The meeting could also be an opportunity to announce the date of the 6th Brussels Conference, which has both a political and a humanitarian component (see EUROPE 12689/8).
Current affairs
Mali. At the end of the session, the ministers will quickly take stock of the political crisis in Mali, a few days after their informal meeting in Brest (Gymnich, 14 January).
In Brest, they had expressed their support for the sanctions imposed by the leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), who have imposed a blockade on the country. They had also confirmed the preparation, as soon as possible, of targeted EU sanctions against the ruling military (see EUROPE 12869/3, EUROPE 12868/1).
However, “there will be no targeted sanction decision on Monday”, a senior official said.
“We will continue the consultation with the region. On Monday, it will only be a progress report”, said a diplomatic source.
The joint meeting with the G5 Sahel Ministers of Foreign Affairs, which was announced in Brest by Josep Borrell, will be held on Wednesday 26 January. “It is important to keep diplomatic channels open. This is an important opportunity to get our messages across and encourage the Malian authorities to show more flexibility in resolving this political crisis”, said another diplomatic source.
In December 2021, the Foreign Affairs Council had only agreed on the legal framework to be able to impose autonomous targeted sanctions on those who have obstructed the transition in Mali since the military coup of 24 May. (see EUROPE 12852/3). According to this European diplomat, work is ongoing to adopt sanctions “in the coming days”.
Sudan. Ministers will briefly discuss the worsening situation in Sudan, where deadly attacks by the junta on peaceful demonstrators and human rights violations have increased since the 25 October coup.
The disproportionate use of force and the refusal of the military authorities to find a negotiated solution to the crisis were denounced by Josep Borrell last 18 January on behalf of the EU27 (see EUROPE 12871/14). “The resignation of the Prime Minister, Abdallah Hamdok, makes the outlook unclear. We will reaffirm our support for the UN consultation process and encourage civil society to get involved in the formation of a new government”, a European diplomat said on Friday.
Indo-Pacific region. The ministers will also have the opportunity to prepare the Indo-Pacific Forum to be held in Paris on 22 February. The French Presidency of the Council of the EU (FPEU) wants to use this meeting to bring together the Member States, the Commission and the partner countries of this region to discuss global issues.
According to an EU diplomat, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs will be able to discuss, on Monday, the different outcomes the EU wants to achieve in the region.
Iran and Bosnia and Herzegovina. The ministers could also quickly address the Iranian nuclear negotiations - which are continuing, but at too slow a pace, according to the Europeans (see EUROPE 12869/4) - and to the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, a few days after the celebration of the 30th anniversary of the proclamation of a ‘Republic of Bosnian Serbs’ on 9 January 1992 (see EUROPE 12866/5).
The EU Council is expected to approve conclusions on the UN-EU strategic partnership on peace operations and crisis management (priorities 2022-2024) and on EU priorities in UN human rights forums in 2022. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant, Aminata Niang and Léa Marchal)