On Tuesday 23 November, the EU27 ministers for European affairs will continue their dialogue on the Rule of law, discuss enlargement and the difficult post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom, and prepare for the EU summit on 16 and 17 December.
United Kingdom. Ministers will be briefed by the European Commission on the ongoing negotiations with the UK to facilitate trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, at a time when the UK government is regularly threatening to activate Article 16 suspending the Ireland-Northern Ireland Protocol.
The EU institution has not yet reached an agreement with London on the package to relax some rules on medicines or on customs controls, but on Friday it judged that progress had been made (see EUROPE 12836/11).
A European diplomat said on Monday 22 November that the recent change of tone on the British side must be translated into concrete progress.
According to him, European Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič should once again receive the support of ministers for his action, faced with a British government that uses the threat of Article 16 for “tactical” reasons. The European Commission’s objective is to reach a solution with London before the end of the year, and it does not believe that the time has yet come to proactively submit a set of countermeasures to the Member States in the event that Article 16 is activated.
Rule of law. The General Affairs Council will also discuss the situation of the Rule of law in five countries - Croatia, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia and Lithuania - on the basis of the second annual report presented in July, in which the European Commission highlighted improvements in the Italian judicial system (see EUROPE 12766/2).
The exercise, which devotes 30 minutes to each country under review, assesses reforms aimed at fighting corruption and safeguarding the independence of the judiciary, as well as the general state of checks and balances and the situation of the media.
While attention is currently focused on Poland and Hungary, which have been the subject of a letter from the European Commission under the ‘Rule of law’ regulation (see other news), the situation in these two countries is not expected to be raised on Tuesday. It is possible, however, that the European Commission will carry out a briefing on the subject and that the two capitals will make a statement.
The previous such dialogue took place in April and involved France, Greece, Germany, Ireland and Spain (see EUROPE 12702/24).
Enlargement. While the discussion on enlargement in the General Affairs Council is traditionally held in December, the Slovenian Presidency of the EU Council wants to discuss the issue on Tuesday and come back to it in December.
Ministers are expected to discuss the EU accession process, a few weeks after the presentation of the European Commission’s progress reports (see EUROPE 12815/11) and after a debate in the Foreign Affairs Council on 15 November on the situation in the Western Balkans (see EUROPE 12832/2).
The aim is to put the debate on the table ahead of the December Council, while the EU Council’s working groups work on the text of conclusions that could be adopted in December.
The ministers are expected to discuss the organisation of the first Intergovernmental Conferences (IGCs) for Albania and North Macedonia, which have been blocked for over a year (see EUROPE 12834/11). Like previous EU Council Presidencies, Slovenia is in contact with the parties to try to break the deadlock with the aim of holding IGCs before the end of the year. While the discussion is intended to put pressure on Bulgaria, no decision is expected on Tuesday as the Bulgarian government is being formed after the parliamentary elections on 14 November.
The EU Council may also address the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (see EUROPE 12826/7) as several Member States call for action against those using separatist rhetoric, including the Serb member of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik. Hungary and Slovenia are reportedly the most reluctant to take such measures.
European Summit in December. Ministers will take stock of the Covid-19 pandemic as the health situation deteriorates, especially - at this stage - in countries with the lowest vaccination rates. They will look at non-essential travel within and outside the EU as the European Commission presents a new draft recommendation on Wednesday. Another question raised was how long the Covid certificate would be valid and whether or not a third dose would be required to continue to benefit from it.
After the Foreign Affairs and Defence Ministers (see EUROPE 12833/2), the Heads of State or Government will discuss the draft ‘Strategic Compass’ and define their guidelines with a view to its adoption in March 2022.
The European Council will also take stock of Belarus, as the Lukashenko regime continues its instrumentalisation of migration and thousands of people are stranded in deplorable conditions at the Belarus-EU border. The question of whether the EU budget should fund physical barriers to prevent irregular arrivals of migrants will almost certainly be back on the table, as 13 countries continue to advocate for this.
In the field of energy, EU leaders will review the EU’s response to soaring energy prices based on reports from the European agencies ACER (see EUROPE 12833/7) and ESMA (see other news), which found no market manipulation.
See the draft annotated summit agenda: https://bit.ly/3CFu4Hq
Preparing for future crises. Ministers are expected to adopt conclusions on preparedness, response, and anticipation of future crises in light of the experience gained during the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to a draft text, a copy of which was obtained by EUROPE, the Member States stress the central role, at European level, of the Council of the EU, supported by the Crisis Management Cell (IPCR), and the importance of coordination with the other EU institutions. In this respect, the EU Council will be invited to assess, by June 2022, the need to adapt and strengthen the mechanisms governing the IPCR, in particular with regard to the anticipation of any kind of crisis that may affect the EU in the future.
See the draft conclusions: https://bit.ly/3DH5esj
Work Programme for 2022. Ministers will discuss the European Commission’s work programme for the coming year (see EUROPE 12815/2). The aim is to adopt an interinstitutional declaration before the end of 2021.
Budget for 2022. The EU Council will approve the EU’s 2022 budget after the interinstitutional agreement reached last week (see EUROPE 12833/12). On Wednesday, the European Parliament is also expected to approve the agreement. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic, Camille-Cerise Gessant and Mathieu Bion)