The European Commission intends to propose that the European Union aim to achieve a net absorption of 310 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 via its carbon sinks (forests, etc.), according to the draft revision of the EU Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation (2018/841), obtained by EUROPE on Monday 5 July.
Should this be confirmed on 14 July, the day of the official presentation of the legislative package designed to put the EU on track to reduce its net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by at least 55% by 2030 (the ‘Fit for 55’ package), this target would be in line with what the Commission promised in the European Climate Law.
In an annex accompanying the agreement reached between the co-legislators on the ‘Climate Law’, the institution committed itself to increasing the EU’s carbon sinks to levels above 300 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030 (see EUROPE 12703/1).
Binding national targets
According to the draft revision of the LULUCF Regulation, these removals will be distributed among Member States from 2026 onwards “in order to determine binding national targets of minimum net removals to achieve in 2030”.
During 2025, the Commission will adopt an implementing act setting annual targets based on verified emissions and removals for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 for each Member State, the document states.
Member States would also be required to present how they intend to contribute to the EU’s GHG removal target in their updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) by June 2024.
For the period before 2026, the current rule that Member States must ensure that GHG emissions do not exceed removals would continue to apply.
Scope of application
The Commission also appears to be considering changes to the scope of the Regulation.
For the period 2026-2030, the scope would no longer be based on the definition of ‘land accounting categories’, but directly on emissions and removals reported in the context of GHG inventories, in accordance with the EU Regulation (2018/1999) on the governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action Union.
From 2031 onwards, the scope of the regulation would also be extended to non-CO2 emissions from the agricultural sector, including methane emissions.
Once agriculture is included, the revised regulation would set an EU-wide climate neutrality target for GHG emissions and removals in the sectors covered by 2035 at the latest. After this date, the aim would be to achieve negative emissions in order to partially offset emissions from other sectors not covered by the regulation.
However, the document does not specify how to ensure that this climate neutrality objective is to be achieved.
Review of flexibilities
According to the draft, the Commission also intends to “adjust” certain derogations provided for in the current regulation.
“The Member States will not be able any more to ‘bank’ surplus removals at the end of the period 2021-2025”, the document states.
However, this amendment would ensure that a share of Member States’ excess absorptions at the end of the 2021-2025 period would be allocated to a flexibility mechanism established in the second period, from 2026 to 2030.
The new mechanism would aim to help Member States cope with any unexpected decrease in removals on all categories of land, not just forests, due to pests, fires and storms, “on condition of clear evidence to be submitted by the Member States in accordance with existing criteria”, the draft says.
See the draft project: https://bit.ly/3jK6Slv
See its annexes: https://bit.ly/3qRDqeX (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)