EU leaders could use their videoconference on the Covid-19 pandemic on Thursday 19 November to discuss the political and budgetary crisis caused by the refusal of Poland, Hungary and Slovenia to endorse the agreements on the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) and the Economic Recovery Plan.
These three countries are effectively blocking adoption of the MFF and the Recovery Plan because they oppose the text on the table, which aims to link the disbursement of European funds to respect for the Rule of law (see EUROPE 12602/1).
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen could take stock during the videoconference of a number of issues other than Covid-19, including the MFF and the Rule of law mechanism, but the format of Thursday’s videoconference between EU leaders does not lend itself to negotiation on a topic as sensitive as the MFF.
Several sources indicate that the topic will be discussed on Thursday. This matter is “very serious. I think we are all being held hostage, not only the governments, but also the people of the EU-27”, a European source said.
“I think there will be difficult days of drama and darkness. Tomorrow night, there will be a chance to express those anxieties, those frustrations. And then, probably in the next few days, it will be possible to think about a statement that provides some guarantees”, the source added.
On Tuesday 17 November, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša wrote to the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, to indicate that “only an independent judiciary can say what the Rule of law is, not a political majority”.
At the July European Council, which reached agreement on the MFF and the Recovery Plan (see EUROPE 12532/2), the Slovenian Prime Minister supported Poland and Hungary in challenging any binding European Rule of law mechanism.
Mateusz Morawiecki, the Polish Prime Minister, said on Wednesday that “an EU in which there is a European oligarchy that punishes the weakest is not the EU we joined”.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called for “ objective criteria” and the opportunity for “legal recourse” if this mechanism on the Rule of law were to enter into force.
It is difficult at this point to predict when and how the veto by these three countries will be lifted.
“We need to see what the real problem is in these countries (...) We have to wait for the countries in question to explain how they want to proceed”, explained a senior European diplomat.
The formal European Council on 10-11 December “is only three weeks away, so I don’t see the need to do anything in the meantime”, the source predicted.
Room for manoeuvre to renegotiate the text on the Rule of law seems very slim.
For the Netherlands, “we cannot accept less“ than what is in the compromise text, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte warned on Tuesday.
To try to find a way out of the crisis, “the EU is studying practical solutions, which may involve a number of technical clarifications”, according to the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, Clément Beaune. But, he warned, “we will look, if necessary, as a last resort, at how to move forward without the countries that are blocking passage”.
The European Parliament will make “no more concessions”. On Wednesday, the Conference of Presidents (composed of the President and the leaders of Parliament’s political groups) reiterated Parliament’s position on the package (MFF, Interinstitutional Agreement, regulation on ‘Rule of law’ conditionality). Parliament had already adopted its opinion on the Own Resources Decision on 16 September, in time for the EU Council and then the Member States to ratify the Decision before the end of 2020.
“We ask the Council to adopt the package and begin the ratification process as soon as possible. The European Parliament’s leadership deeply regrets this delay and reiterates that the agreements reached can in no way be reopened. No further concessions will be made on our side”, says a statement released after the Conference of Presidents’ meeting. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur, with Sophie Petitjean and Agathe Cherki)