As expected (see EUROPE 12557/1), the European Commission will on Wednesday 16 September propose a new European target for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions "of least 55%" by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), according to a draft version of its '2030 Climate Target Plan' obtained by EUROPE.
This plan will be officially presented on the day of the State of the Union address by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and will be accompanied by the Commission's impact assessment analysing the feasibility of an increase of this level in the 2030 target (the current target is a 40% reduction).
However, this analysis "demonstrates that an emissions reduction of 55%, compared to 1990 levels, is both economically feasible and beneficial for Europe, with proper policies in place", says the leaked document.
It also states that "the less action the EU takes in the next ten years, the steeper and more challenging the reduction path after 2030".
Stressing that current policies would lead to a reduction in EU emissions of only 60% by 2050, the Commission believes that an emission reduction target of 55% by 2030 is necessary to follow a "balanced, realistic, and prudent pathway to climate neutrality by 2050".
Energy implications
The document also reveals the implications of a 55% reduction in terms of renewable energy and energy efficiency.
According to the Commission, the share of renewables in the EU's energy mix will thus have to reach a level of between 38 and 40% by 2030 (the current target is a share of 32%) and the improvement in energy efficiency will have to be between 39.2% and 40.6% (the current target is an improvement of 32.5%).
Consumption of coal, oil and gas should be reduced by more than 70%, 30% and 25% respectively compared to 2015, the document anticipates.
In order to promote the development of renewables, the Commission considers, inter alia, that it would be appropriate to adopt "a comprehensive terminology for all renewable and low-carbon fuels and a European system of certification of such fuels, based notably on full life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings and sustainability criteria".
Strengthening the ETS system
The paper also recalls the main initiatives planned by the Commission that should contribute to the new 55% target, such as the 'renovation wave', the strategy for offshore renewable energy, the revision of the Energy Taxation Directive, the strategy for sustainable and intelligent mobility and the revision of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
In particular, the document stresses the strengthening of the ETS, which obliges companies in sectors and industries subject to this system to purchase emission allowances to cover their GHG emissions.
According to the text, the institution will as a result propose to reduce the allocation of free allowances for aviation (see EUROPE 12542/3).
It also considers that it will be necessary to strengthen the ETS ceiling by revising the linear reduction factor. Currently set at 2.2% (see EUROPE 11910/12), this factor defines the annual rate at which the total number of carbon allowances in the ETS is reduced.
This revision could "be combined with a one-off reduction of the cap" of the ETS, since the nominal cap - which sets a limit on the number of emission allowances in the scheme - is currently higher than actual emissions, the paper points out.
The institution also plans to extend the ETS to intra-Community maritime transport, similar to what currently exists for aviation, and is considering including emissions from road transport and buildings.
As regards road transport, it should be noted that the Commission's Executive Vice-President responsible for the European Green Deal, Frans Timmermans, had expressed serious misgivings about the inclusion of this sector in the ETS on 9 September at an event organised by the NGO Transport & Environment.
The strengthening of the ETS should not, however, replace existing emission reduction policies, such as emission standards for cars and vans, the document says.
See the document: https://bit.ly/3bUPFjo (Original version in French by Damien Genicot)