According to the latest short-term outlook report published by the European Commission on Tuesday 7 July, wine-making is among the sectors that has been most seriously affected by the Covid-19 crisis.
However, as the pandemic has created a shock on the demand side rather than the supply side, the Commission is forecasting good prospects for production of dairy products, sugar, pig meat, olive oil, wine and tomatoes.
European exports and imports of wine will fall by 7% and 8% respectively in 2019/2020, according to the document. The fall in wine consumption is estimated at 7%, whereas wine production for other uses has risen by 33%. The Commission notes that “this is thanks in particular to the exceptional measures allowing crisis distillation”.
Arable crops. For 2020/21, EU cereal production is forecast at 286.3 million tonnes, a decrease of 2.7% compared to 2019/20, but still 1.7% above the five-year average. Production of soya beans and protein crops is forecast to increase to 2.8 million tonnes and 4.5 million tonnes respectively.
Sugar production in 2020/21 is forecast to remain at the same level as in 2019/20, despite a 3% decrease in the sugar beet area. Lower demand for ethanol and reduced sales in the catering sector are expected to result in lower sugar consumption in the EU in 2019/20.
Specialised crops. In 2019/20, EU olive oil production remained 4% below the five-year average. In 2020/21, it is predicted to increase to 2.3 million tonnes (an rise of 20% compared with 2019/20).
With regard to the fruit and vegetable sector, apple prices have been very high in recent months, as a result of the small crop in 2019/20 and high demand during lockdown. The expectation is that 3.1 million tonnes of peaches and nectarines will be produced. This will have a positive impact on prices, which have already increased by 19% in the first seven weeks of the season compared to the same period last year.
Production of fresh tomatoes is forecast to remain stable in 2020, with a decline in production in Spain offset by an expected increase in Poland. Consumption of fresh tomatoes in the EU is expected to fall slightly in 2020, by 1%.
Milk and dairy products. In 2020, milk collection in the EU might approach 144 million tonnes, 0.7% above 2019 levels. Germany is expected to contribute the most to this growth, followed closely by Italy, Spain and the Netherlands.
Meat. Beef production is forecast to drop by 1.7% in 2020. This fall is thought to be the result of reduced demand for prepared foods of all kinds during the pandemic. Poultry production is forecast to decline by 2% in 2020. Pig meat production is forecast to increase slightly (+0.5%) in 2020. Lastly, the production of sheep and goat meat is forecast to fall by 1.5% in 2020.
Overall, the reduction in consumer demand during the crisis and other factors will lead to a fall in meat consumption of 2.5% to 65.4 kg per capita in 2020.
A link to the short-term outlook report can be found at: https://bit.ly/3e6TWjf (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)