Le Temps des prédateurs
With “Le Temps des prédateurs”, François Heisbourg has provided us with a lucid analysis of the world surrounding us and the risks it entails to an uncertain Europe, which has been divided and weakened by the crises that have hit it, one by one, at a steady rate throughout the first years of 21st century.
“China, the United States and Russia have reached more less advanced stages of predation and the targets are not the same. It is, however, already possible to talk about predation in the present tense rather than the future when it comes to their relationship with Europe. Since the election of Donald Trump, all three state-continents share the view that the very existence of a European Union in possession of substantial powers is undesirable. They consider that the EU should be at least weakened or circumnavigated or, better still, divided or even destroyed: it is so much easier to divide, if not to conquer then at least to subjugate and pillage”, argues the Special Adviser to France’s Fondation pour la recherche stratégique (Foundation for Strategic Research), who goes on to question Europe’s ability to face the new predators of the international system. This work sets out to reconnoitre the hunting grounds of modern-day predation, to examine the “behaviour of the predators” and analyse the strategic options open to a Europe under threat.
Concerning the predators’ operating grounds, the author draws a distinction between the traditional, but still relevant, hunting grounds and new ones. The former group includes mastering geographical spaces, in particular control of the seas and oceans, which is just as critical today, both from the point of view of trade, most of which uses maritime routes, and that of exploitable (or already overexploited) resources as regards fisheries. Although less pressing, the territorial conquest comes under the same heading, at least in Russia’s conduct since 2008 and “Europe should now work on the theory that territorial predation is back, at least on its eastern borders”, Heisbourg writes. The economy and the markets are the preferred hunting ground of China; Russia, with its Spanish GDP, has no foothold in this field. Finally, in the field of technology, China is now rivalling the United States in the deployment of a domination strategy. The new operating grounds include cyber-space, in which China has created a “large-scale asymmetry in its favour: global Internet actors are shut out of China, but actors in the Chinese web are free to operate worldwide”; the instrumentalisation of the past, or rewriting of history to include some staggering untruths, for the purposes of propaganda, has become a national sport in Russia. The author adds to this list the control of water and major water basins as well as the competition raging between the three predators to take control of the Arctic.
Heisbourg describes a restored China that is “already a superpower” in strategic competition with the United States and whose approach to Europe “can be summed up in five words: profit, influence, detach, integrate and intervene”. Profit refers to the exploitation of the enormous European single market, to which China has become the number one supplier, and where it intends to dominate the roll-out of 5G, which will structure the whole of cyber-space. Influence refers to the recruitment of an armada of influencers, along the lines of the lobbyists and consultants recruited by Huawei to impose its 5G on France, espionage, cyber-attacks, the spread of new Confucius Institutes or investments, particularly in countries of central and eastern Europe or certain Mediterranean states. In its rivalry with Washington, its aim is to detach Europe from the United States, with the logical next step of a form of integration, in which the control of the 5G project entrusted to Huawei would be the ideal tool. Finally, the author argues that the exponential development of Chinese military capability means that it is no longer possible to exclude the hypothesis of the use of force.
Although often presented as a declining force, the United States still has a considerable range of assets: force that is currently unequalled, capabilities that continue to benefit from massive investment, genuine financial supremacy, although an “international monetary system dominated or co-managed by China is an achievable objective for the centenary of the creation of the People’s Republic in 2049”. The United States, on the other hand, is suffering from chronic underinvestment in both physical and social infrastructure and a chaotic Trump Presidency that has killed off many of the very alliances that are vital to America’s power. “Trump is Wilhelm II on amphetamines. The ‘very stable genius’ of ‘infinite wisdom’, to quote from the man himself, is a megalomaniac whose egocentrism is off the charts compared to many of his predecessors, even though they did not exactly claim to be modest and optimistic”, Heisbourg writes in a vitriolic portrait of the occupant of the White House. He believes that “the post-Trump America will probably be different in that we can hope that the regular functioning of the State and institutions will be re-established (…). Internationally, the historical role of ‘Donald’ will be to have been a factor of disorder and acceleration of tendencies already in existence, rather than someone who set a new course. Unlike the Chinese nightmare described above, the Trump nightmare will have to end, sooner or later. However, the old Europe will realise that it will not wake up in a bed of roses”.
The Russian ogre has the “appetite of a bear”, the author states, but observes that Russia’s busy revisionist agenda will be difficult to pull off “as it has the GDP of Spain, the population of Japan, a military budget lower than China’s, etc”. However, Heisbourg adds, Russia has nonetheless modernised its military capability and now has more effective and more agile forces. It is making increased use of so-called private military companies, such as ‘Wagner’, and has developed an impressive capacity for narrative and informational destabilisation. Even so, Russia’s strategic options remain limited. Although it has developed a partnership with China, it is asymmetrical and, despite a number of immediate advantages, entails long-term risks. It has, however, taken root and Europe cannot dismantle it on its own, the author explains, adding that “over time, Russia could reconsider the option of a major agreement with the United States”. This is because “the Chinese priority that will dominate American strategy over the next decades could marginalise NATO and make room for a new Russian-American Yalta in Europe. This would look less like the ‘every man for himself’ chaos of a Trump-Putin agreement than a sort of condominium: a sphere of influence would be recognised for Russia in the whole of the post-Soviet area and America’s current European allies would be required to follow the American policy towards China in all matters, whilst accepting Russian primacy over our continent”.
And where does all this leave the European Union? It is, admittedly, uninspiring and is still an incomplete construct, without any real strategic dimension. However, the author stresses, it also has at its disposal some real assets, including its economy, its market, the euro, its ability to issue standards at international level, etc. It should therefore reinforce itself, gain cohesion and develop a common strategic culture to defend itself in this world of predators. The downside is that the author does not believe that this will happen. He considers that institutional posture is required and that federation will not happen overnight. The only real adversary is China and the only option for the Europeans is a remodelled Euro-American partnership, preferably within the framework of NATO. “If the United States is a friend who needs to be reminded of his duties, China is the invader who needs to be overcome”, writes Heisbourg, who remains faithful to himself, right up to his argument in favour of welcoming the British back to the European Defence Fund, even though they have excluded themselves from it. Olivier Jehin
François Heisbourg. Le Temps des prédateurs – La Chine, les Etats-Unis, la Russie et nous. Odile Jacob. ISBN: 978-2-7381-5201-5. 235 pages. €22,90
Le leadership mondial en question
In this richly documented work, the former editor in chief of the news agency France Presse, Pierre-Antoine Donnet, describes the “multiform Cold War” underway between China and the United States. The work owes a great deal to his experience on the ground, having spent eight years of his life between Taiwan and Hong Kong for his studies and in Beijing as a correspondent for AFP. He also spent two years in the United States as an accredited correspondent at the UN in New York.
Based on facts and quotations, the book sets out the duel being fought by the two countries, one of them to try to hold onto its leadership position, the other to make flesh the “Chinese dream” of restoring China’s power and reinforcing national pride, which the CPC needs in order to hang onto power. It offers us an honest and balanced account of China’s rise in power, its ability to develop strategic partnerships, including its 2001 partnership with Russia, the development of its market share, for instance in Africa, where its trade has risen from $10.8 billion in 2001 to 170 billion in 2017, eclipsing the former colonial powers, and the spider’s web it has patiently woven at global scale. The real subject of the book is first and foremost China. The outsider is manoeuvring and, to a considerable extent, it is China which is dictating an agenda its principal rival is doing its best to resist, while Europe “looks on from the sidelines, a powerless observer, caught up in its own internal dissensions, of this clash of the titans”.
Over the course of the book, the reader cannot help but be astonished by the Chinese economic miracle and the country’s successes in sectors from robotics to aeronautics, space, electronic cars, with no fewer than 1.25 million units sold in the country in 2018, the development of hydrogen technology, high-speed trains and nuclear fusion, as well as telecommunications and digital. At the same time, however, the reader is alarmed by the use of the country has made of the latter technologies to exercise absolute social control over its citizens, who are denied any form of freedom of expression by the CPC. In addition to the well-known “social credit” system, which the authorities have been trying since 2019 to extend to foreign businesses, Donnet also reports the use of facial recognition technologies in certain shops, in which it is no longer necessary to produce a credit card to pay for their purchases: “once shoppers have finished shopping, they just have to stand in front of the camera at the exit of the shop to be immediately identified and their bank accounts are automatically debited”. As for Chinese journalists, they have to pass tests and are only allowed to report “positive things” about China. Foreign correspondents who fail to comply with this obligation risk expulsion. The distribution of foreign media is closely censored, as is access to non-Chinese social media and other websites.
These few examples provide only a small taster of the volume of information contained in this work, which also devotes many pages to more geostrategic aspects, such as the arms race in full swing between China and the United States, the development of the “Belt and Road Initiative” and the entry points China is securing for itself in Europe: Genoa and Trieste in Italy, Piraeus in Greece, among others, although there are also agreements in place with Croatia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Portugal and Malta. This is a must-read for anybody wishing to get a more balanced idea of Chinese reality and Europe’s fragility against this powerful new would-be hegemon. (OJ)
Pierre-Antoine Donnet. Le leadership mondial en question – L’affrontement entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis. Editions L’aube. ISBN: 978-2-8159-3701-6. 233 pages. €22,00
Leur folie, nos vies
François Ruffin , member of the French Parliament representing the Somme (La France insoumise), made good use of lockdown to return to his (admittedly militant) journalistic roots to turn the spotlight on the coronavirus crisis as it was played out in France and, undoubtedly, but with a few subtle differences, elsewhere in Europe. The book is packed with personal accounts garnered from the Internet radio show he hosted from his kitchen, but also in many other different ways. It is shot through with his views, which readers may or may not share, but many of which owe a great deal to common sense and will not leave anybody indifferent. Touching in places, it is also very funny.
“Humanity was dragged into a crazy, suicidal race, even though it was aware of the disaster: we knew, and we knew why, and we analysed it, with figures, we commentated on the airwaves, we predicted, measured, calculated, with climatologists and ornithologists, modellers and computers, armed with an entire branch of science to understand our predicament, but without the intelligence to avoid it (…). Then, all of a sudden, the planet stops turning. Because of a tiny little thing, a thousandth of a millimetre, if that (…). Yes, it’s a crisis. A public health crisis. Soon to be an economic crisis. A social crisis in waiting. With its cortege of dramas that are already present. But it is also an opportunity. Possibly the last. The last chance history, or nature, is giving us. Like a warning. We have reached a fork in the road”, writes the author, before calling on his readers to reflect on the meaning, to reorientate the system, to rethink our societies. However, he does not believe in Emmanuel Macron’s promises of a new start, recalling that in 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy did likewise concerning the previous crisis: “a certain idea of globalisation is now complete (…). Self-regulation to solve all problems is over. Laissez-faire is over. The market is always right is over”. And the mad race for growth starts again in earnest. At the time of writing, the easing of lockdown seems to be entirely geared towards economic recovery and a return to growth, yet Ruffin argues that the aim should be to “put life before the economy”, which should be re-channelled into organic farming, refurbishment and insulation of buildings, social matters, health care, education and culture.
Although he makes room for a caustic criticism of the absurdities of lockdown (you can’t leave your home, but you can go and work on a building site or in a factory, for instance), the work also delivers a lengthy indictment, that is precise and hard to argue with, of the lack of farsightedness and mismanagement of the successive governments in France, for dismantling many hospital services, with irresponsible budgetary cuts (under Macron, “12 billion was scratched from health” in three years, the MP stresses), leading to shortages of everything – masks, ventilators, scrubs, but also blankets, thermometers and stethoscopes.
Ruffin would like to make health a priority and argues the case for it to be free at point of use, but also for the development of effective preventative medicine. Although he does not go easy on Jupiter (one of Macron’s nicknames: Ed), the author is particularly scathing of the presidentialisation of the regime and the phenomenon of centralisation on the outward edges which, like the new major regions, themselves centralised and created without any historical, socio-economic or cultural logic, is one of the major sources of the malfunctions observed during the crisis. Regrettable, however, are the challenges issued to Europe here and there at certain points within the work, particularly because this crisis is further proof of the need for European solidarity. But also, because although the solutions put forward by the Somme MP are fair, there is no legitimacy in wishing to apply them to the French alone.
But let us, like the author, conclude on a hazy note of hope: “we can seize this opportunity, change our course and our destination. We can let it pass us by, out of weakness, out of cowardice, out of laziness. A new world is possible. It is wanted, hugely, massively, like a child. It can be born. But we cannot count on them to give birth to it: they will try their hardest to abort it”. (OJ)
François Ruffin. Leur folie, nos vies – La bataille de l’après. Editions Les liens qui libèrent. ISBN: 979-10-209-0879-7. 276 pages. €17,50.