The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, will travel to London on Wednesday, 8 January where she will meet British Prime Minister Boris Johnson at 10 Downing Street for the first time since his victory in the December general election.
On Friday 20 December, after three unsuccessful attempts, the British Parliament, now largely dominated by Conservatives, approved the agreement on an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the European Union as renegotiated by Mr Johnson. This vote paves the way for ratification of the agreement by British MEPs and the European Parliament by the end of January (see EUROPE 12395/4).
If this scenario materialises, all emergency measures taken to smooth the effect of a no-deal British exit will lapse.
Following ratification of the withdrawal agreement, there will then be a post-Brexit transition period until the end of 2020, which was originally scheduled to begin on 29 March 2019, the date initially foreseen for the British withdrawal. It will be designed to negotiate future relations, including trade relations, between the EU and the UK. To this end, the Twenty-Seven will have to swiftly approve the negotiating mandate granted to the European Commission on the basis of the bilateral declaration on future relations approved in mid-October by London and the EU (see EUROPE 12351/2).
The level of ambition of bilateral trade relations will depend on the UK’s willingness to keep its domestic rules and standards close to those adopted by the EU, the Twenty-Seven warn, concerned that future relations should be based on “a balance between rights and obligations” and ensure “a level playing field”.
According to EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier, if Mr Johnson does not decide by July 2020 to request an extension of the transition period, the negotiating timetable will be “particularly ambitious”. Among the strategic interests that the Twenty-Seven will defend, Mr Barnier recalled that “competing on social and environmental standards – rather than skills, innovation and quality – leads to only to a race to the bottom that puts workers, consumers, and the planet on the losing side” in an op-ed published at the end of December by Project Syndicate.
During the transition period, the UK will continue to comply with EU rules. In particular, it will remain within the internal market and customs union and the free movement of persons will continue to apply within the United Kingdom. However, the British authorities will no longer have any influence in the development of European standards, as they will no longer be sitting in any European institution or body.
During her visit to London, Ms von der Leyen will also give a speech at the London School of Economics. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)