Demand for dairy products (cheese) is expected to continue to increase, leading to an increase in EU milk production over the period 2019-2030, according to the report on the EU’s agricultural outlook for 2019-2030, published by the European Commission on Wednesday 11 December 2019.
The report forecasts a growth in global demand for cereals, which will lead to an increase in wheat production in the EU, despite increased competition from the Black Sea countries.
Total agricultural land in the EU is expected to decrease over the period considered, reaching 178.3 million hectares in 2030. On the other hand, the areas under protein crops, fodder and oilseeds are expected to increase by 46%, 2% and 1% respectively compared to 2020.
The report presents a scenario on the impact of a change in protein diet in the EU over the next 10 years. A significant increase in alternative plant-based diets could lead to lower farmgate prices for meat and dairy products, which would increase the sector’s competitiveness on world markets. In the case of cereals, the increase in demand for human consumption could only partially compensate for the decrease in demand for animal feed, leading to a reduction in land use. The increase in demand for soya for human consumption could come from an increase in EU production, which is expected to increase by 5% by 2030. Finally, this change could have potential benefits for the climate and the environment. For example, the carbon footprint of the EU agricultural sector would be reduced by 6%.
Another scenario suggests a target of 100% milk production in the EU without genetically modified foods (GMOs) by 2030, which would result in a decrease in imports of soya and soya meal and an increase in EU feed production. Link to the report: http://bit.ly/2PeIEk1 (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)