Boris Johnson’s ascension to Conservative party leader and UK prime minister was predictable (EUROPE 12302/19). But his personality makes Brexit all the more unpredictable.
Who will EU Brexit negotiators encounter when (or if) talks restart? Will it be Boris Johnson, the die-hard Brexiteer, who is prepared to leave the EU, “do or die” by 31 October? Or will it be the pragmatist, who prepared a newspaper column in case Remain won the 2016 referendum, in which he called the EU “a market on our doorstep” for which the membership fee “seems rather small”?
Mr Johnson’s new cabinet is tilted heavily in favour of Brexit (EUROPE 12303/19). He hired Dominic Cummings, the head of the Vote Leave campaign, as a senior advisor. He has kept on Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay, whose bad-tempered meeting earlier this month with EU negotiator Michel Barnier soured relations between the two sides. He has fired 17 of former prime minister Theresa May’s government, replacing most of them with ardent Brexiteers - ex-Brexit secretary Dominic Raab is now in the foreign office, former home secretary Sajid Javid is chancellor of the exchequer and media darling Jacob Rees Mogg is leader of the House of Commons. Interestingly, he has also appointed his brother, Jo Johnson, as universities and science minister.
He has refused to nominate a new EU commissioner, complaining to parliament on Thursday that there are “very many brilliant officials trapped in meeting after meeting in Brussels and Luxembourg when they could be better deploying their talents” on trade deals.
To say it hasn’t been the friendliest of starts is an understatement. The EU has given Mr Johnson a cautious welcome, with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker calling him on Thursday to congratulate him on his appointment (EUROPE 12304/27). But according to a UK government spokesman, Mr Johnson thanked him before telling him that the withdrawal agreement “will not pass in its current form” and that “the way to a deal goes by way of the abolition of the backstop”.
It is a significant hardening of the government’s Brexit policy, as previous attempts to get a deal through Parliament had relied on reassurances that the backstop - the fallback policy to ensure no checks on the Irish/Northern Irish border in the absence of a new trade deal - would be temporary. But Mr Johnson is convinced, as he told Parliament on Thursday, that “other arrangements are perfectly possible and compatible” with the 1998 Good Friday peace deal.
Mr Juncker responded that the current deal is the “best and only” show in town, but said he was willing to consider changes to the accompanying political declaration (EUROPE 12293/24). In a leaked note to EU leaders, Mr Barnier went further, saying that ditching the backstop would be “unacceptable”. The clap back came after Mr Johnson announced he is preparing to “turbo charge” preparations for a no-deal Brexit.
He is pursuing a “twin track approach”, says Eurasia group analyst Mujtaba Rahman: trying for a deal while ramping up preparations for no deal. Mr Johnson is also placing the blame for any negative outcomes squarely at the EU’s door, despite Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar’s repeated attempts to convince people that “no deal is a British threat”. Mr Varadkar admitted on Thursday that he didn’t know whether Mr Johnson was bluffing or serious about crashing out of the EU in October. Mr Rahman believes the most likely outcome of the new prime minister’s strategy is a general election - with Mr Johnson claiming to have tried to negotiate, painting the EU as intransigent and giving him a chance to win back voters from Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.
Tory MPs have spoken to British media of their “dread and fear”, with a collision between the government and parliament now brewing and set to boil over in the autumn. But opposition to no deal is growing, and with the Labour Party divided over its own Brexit policy, and the recent European election win for the Liberal Democrats (whose new leader Jo Swinson is pushing to revoke Article 50), it may not be a lost cause. “The immediate threat to Johnson is the growing Tory rebellion against no-deal,” says Mr Rahman. “Boris may have taken revenge on some of his enemies within in his bloody reshuffle. But they know they will soon have their opportunity to take their revenge on him.”
Today might be the first day of the UK parliament’s summer recess, but it’s going to be no holiday. (Sarah Collins)