The 28 Heads of State or Government of the European Union will discuss the issue of appointments to senior European positions – Presidencies of the European Council, the European Commission, the European Parliament, the European Central Bank and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy – during dinner on Thursday 20 June. These discussions could continue the next day.
It is not clear at this stage whether a package appointment will take place at the summit. Despite “diverging views and interests”, European Council President Donald Tusk remains “cautiously optimistic” about the possibility of achieving this, while the European leaders he consulted have expressed their determination to decide before the constituent session of the European Parliament starting on Tuesday 2 July, when the European Assembly will elect Antonio Tajani's successor.
If the appointments are not approved at this summit, “a crisis situation narrative is created, exploited by anti-Europeans of all kinds”, warned a senior national diplomat on Wednesday 19 June. According to him, this is not the time to convene a new summit by 2 July, although the possibility of an extraordinary meeting on 1 July, after the G20 summit in Japan, is being raised. It is possible, but the window is “very narrow”, said one European source, preferring a faster decision.
A quick decision on the presidency of the Commission would also allow for the rapid establishment of this European institution and avoid a ‘Juncker’ Commission in current affairs when Brexit is supposed to take place at the end of October, noted a second high-ranking diplomat.
On the issue of names, “all options are on the table”, the European source said, noting a very “dynamic” situation between now and Thursday's dinner, due to the intensity of ongoing consultations. The importance of respecting a political, geographical and gender balance increases the number of possible combinations.
In addition to bilateral discussions and informal exchanges on the margins of the summit, other preparatory meetings will take place during the preliminary meetings of the European political families. The negotiators appointed by the European political parties EPP, PES and ALDE will meet again on Thursday and, before the summit begins, Mr Tusk will meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.
Officially, the main pro-European political families continue to support their top candidates (‘Spitzenkandidaten’) for the European Commission presidency. Christian Democrats support Manfred Weber (Germany), and the Social Democrats and obviously the Netherlands as well, Frans Timmermans (Netherlands). Margrethe Vestager (Denmark) seems to have the support of the Liberals, even if she officially declared her candidacy only after the European elections.
But the political groups – EPP, S&D, Renew Europe, Greens/EFA – likely to form a pro-European majority in the European Parliament, which want the Spitzenkandidaten process to be preserved (see EUROPE 12265/2), have not asked Mr Weber to try to win a political majority on himself, unlike what they did 5 years ago with Luxembourg's Jean-Claude Juncker.
In the opinion of a third senior diplomat, “the package of appointments is the result of the choice of the President of the European Commission”. He recalled that the personality who will be suggested to preside over the Commission, taking into account the results of the European elections, must obtain “a qualified majority in the European Council and an absolute majority in the European Parliament”.
It remains to be seen whether Mr Tusk, in order to force a decision, will enforce his warning to vote on the appointments, as he had warned in Sibiu (see EUROPE 12251/2). But Germany does not want it to come to such a scenario. France, for whom the choice of the presidency of the Commission is the most important, would like to avoid such a scenario, preferring a candidate with whom everyone is comfortable or, at the very least, to whom no one is hostile.
Strategic agenda. The European leaders of the Twenty-Seven will adopt their strategic agenda which will guide the work of the European institutions during the next institutional cycle (see EUROPE 12271/2, 12275/8).
“This agenda reflects the changes that Europe and the world have undergone in recent years”, according to Mr Tusk, referring to more recent issues such as the protection of the EU's borders, the advent of the digital age, the importance for Europe to assert itself against internal and external threats.
5 years ago, we were focused on the crisis in the euro area, this European source decoded.
The only question that the Twenty-Seven will have to decide is the level of ambition of the EU in the fight against climate change and, in particular, the possible setting of the climate neutrality target for 2050 (see EUROPE 12278/2).
Working for a week on their own strategic priorities for the next institutional cycle, the EPP, S&D, Renew Europe and Greens/EFA groups should not be able to finalise their work by Thursday's EU summit.
Negotiations on the political agenda between the four groups are “at a standstill”, a parliamentary source said. The leaders of the four groups cancelled a meeting on Wednesday 19 June, which was supposed to review the discussions.
Differences remain on the content of the political declaration that these groups want to address to European leaders to influence the choice of the figure who will preside over the next European Commission.
Within the European Parliament, it is also argued that the positions of some groups are not entirely fixed, since their formation is in progress. In addition, if the Twenty-Eight meet again for an extraordinary European summit on appointments, there is still time to refine the strategic priorities. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion and editorial staff)