European leaders are expected to recognise on Thursday 20 June the importance of the climate summit convened by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for 23 September in New York to raise the level of global climate action and contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement in order to meet its objectives.
In this context, they will endeavour - without any guarantee of success - to reach a consensus on the desirability of including in their conclusions a climate neutrality goal for the EU by 2050.
It would take a miracle for them to succeed, given the opposition of a handful of Member States, including Poland, Bulgaria, Croatia and Lithuania, mostly for reasons related to their dependence on coal, their fears for their competitiveness, and for social considerations.
"The problem is likely to persist," a European source predicted on Wednesday. "15 countries are very engaged. We can take everyone's abilities into account. We are working on solutions", said another source. "We will need a mechanism for technology or financial transfer; I don't know if we will succeed", confided a diplomatic source.
The subject will be discussed and will have an impact on the formulation of the Strategic Agenda 2021-2024, which has already been agreed at Sherpa level, except on this point (see EUROPE 12275/8).
Last March, the Heads of State or Government of The Twenty-Eight gave their guidelines for the future long-term climate strategy that the EU will need to adopt in order to be able to present it to the UN by January 2020, as required by the Paris Agreement, but without setting a date for the climate neutrality of the European economy (see EUROPE 12220/4).
"Things have changed since March. A very large majority of Member States have declared themselves ready to support a climate neutrality objective by 2050, including countries that would never have been expected to accept. I hope that the trend will continue towards unanimity", said a senior European official.
Some Member States have joined in recent days, such as Slovakia, Hungary and Ireland (see EUROPE 12276/15).
European Council President Donald Tusk had contact on Tuesday with Antonio Guterres in the context of the upcoming international climate talks, including the Osaka G20 (28-29 June) and the UN summit in September. Mr Guterres hopes that the EU could raise its 2030 target to a 55% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 (instead of the current target of at least 40%) and announce it. He may be disappointed.
According to the draft conclusions, leaders will invite the EU Council and the Commission to continue work on the conditions, incentives and framework to support the EU's transition to a climate-neutral economy - in line with the Paris Agreement - that will preserve European competitiveness and be fair and equitable, and socially balanced, while building on the measures already agreed to achieve the EU's 2030 objectives. The European Council is also expected to confirm that it will finalise its guidelines before the end of the year to allow for the adoption and presentation of the long-term strategy to the UN in early 2020. It should also confirm that the EU and its Member States will participate in intensifying the activation of international climate finance and work to replenish the Green Climate Fund. (Aminata Niang and editorial staff)