In the absence of agreement with the SPD ministers of the governing coalition, German Chancellor Angela Merkel should, in principle, abstain if there is a vote at the European Council on the future President of the European Commission (see EUROPE 12278/1).
However, the Secretary of State for European Affairs, Michael Roth, reminded us again this week that his party still supports the Social Democratic candidate, Franz Timmermans (Netherlands).
On Wednesday 19 June, sources close to the German government bypassed the Chancellor's abstention question, explaining that the future President of the European Commission should "be approved by acclamation and consensus in the [European] Council, not by qualified majority vote". "Choosing a president by a simple qualified majority of the European population would not be a good sign for the future," they argued.
For the time being, contacts are continuing between the capitals and those close to the government who expect an agreement between Paris and Berlin in the near future, without specifying around which candidate. "It is essential that it be accepted by the European Parliament, around the strategic programme under preparation", noted these same sources, for whom "we have a 100% chance of reaching an agreement" before the inaugural session of the European Parliament, on 2 July in Strasbourg. He recalled that several summits, including at the global level, would be held in the meantime.
In the great game of poker bluffing that will start on Thursday evening around the package of appointments to senior European positions, Germany is still holding its cards close to the vest.
However, at this stage, it is "unlikely that Manfred Weber could be chosen", said Josef Janning, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Berlin. Michel Barnier "is a good external candidate since he has fallen into the 'European magic potion' and has proven himself", noted Almut Möller, also at ECFR. However, why rush the European Parliament by bypassing the Spitzenkandidaten process when in reality, "neither Germany nor France really need a strategic position like the Presidency of the Commission, since they are already dominant", she analysed.
Germany's strategy has always been to "encourage the recruitment of quality people into the administration so that they can reach the highest level", Josef Janning noted.
Who else but Manfred Weber, the leading Christian Democrat candidate, supported by Mrs Merkel? For the German researcher, Franz Timmermans is well placed to please Italy, Greece or Portugal. But a surprise Nordic candidacy, "especially Baltic", could emerge to balance political forces while bypassing the question of support for "populist" countries, from Italy to Poland. Especially since "it is more important for a small state than for a large one to have a high-profile position," said Josef Janning. (Original version in French by Nathalie Steiwer)