The UK’s big Brexit vote is (finally) happening, but this time, even the government seems resigned to losing it. So what happens then?
Theresa May is still holding out hope that “clarifications” from the European Council and Commission on the Northern Irish border backstop will sway reluctant MPs.
A letter will probably be sent Monday or Tuesday, according to sources.
From the EU side, no deal would be a “catastrophe”, according to Commission president Jean Claude Juncker, who said this Friday in Bucharest he and Mr Tusk are still weighing what “clarifications” they can give May. However he insisted any letter or document coming from the EU side should “not be confused with a renegotiation”.
The British prime minister is also courting trade union support, an indication that she may have abandoned trying to convince hardline Brexiteers and the Democratic Unionists, and is turning instead to Labour MPs.
Assuming she doesn’t win, she will then have three days to present a ‘plan B’ to the UK parliament, under a new condition added this week (instead of the 21 days previously set out in legislation). Parliament would then have to debate and vote on that motion, probably at the beginning of February.
This week’s Brexit debates in the Parliament have taken place in a chaotic atmosphere, with speaker John Bercow lambasted for allowing the ‘plan B’ amendment and Tory MP Anna Soubry harassed on her way into Westminster. The government was also widely mocked for a lacklustre ‘no deal’ practice run in a Kent airfield, which saw only a few lorry drivers show up.
The thing is, there is simply not enough time to prepare for any kind of Brexit.
There are at least six pieces of legislation - including the immigration bill - that must be passed before Brexit day on 29 March, according to the Evening Standard newspaper.
EU officials have discussed the idea of an extension to the Article 50 negotiating time, but without a British request - which the government insists will not come - there is not much they can do. In any case, an extension would probably stretch the timetable until the summer, giving May little time to sway hardline MPs.
And the fundamental question remains: what kind of EU-UK relationship will win cross-party support and ensure an open Irish border? It’s a question that wasn’t given enough attention before the referendum and has been papered over ever since.
To quote Michel Barnier: the clock is still ticking. (Sarah Collins)