Three years after its conclusion, the Paris Climate Agreement now has rules making it operational, though everything still remains to be done. Due to its lack of political ambition, COP 24, which ended on Sunday 16 December in Katowice (Poland) more than 24 hours later than expected, is disappointing due to its lack of sufficient measurement of the climate emergency so that it may be translated it into an increase in level of commitment of various countries (NDC). To say that dramatic and irreversible climate change is not close to being avoided is an understatement.
However, EU negotiators chose to see the glass half full, welcoming the adoption of rules and guidelines for the implementation of this universal agreement to which the United States has turned its back. The Paris Agreement is saved, and this is what has allowed the President of the COP, Michał Kurtyka, to call it "a historical success", even though Brazil is now among the ‘climatosceptics’.
In view of the disappointment of developing countries and small island states, the most vulnerable to climate change, and even IPCC experts, who had sounded the alarm, this is the challenge stemming from the ambition that COP 25 will have to face in Chile in January 2020.
Even though the adoption of the Agreement's implementation manual ('The Paris Rulebook') was achieved, it is the lowest common denominator upon which the parties can eventually agree, the European Commissioner for Climate and Energy Action, Miguel Arias Cañete, praised this achievement. "We have reached unanimous agreement by consensus to fight climate change," he said. "We have binding rules determining how countries will apply the objectives of the Paris Agreement in a transparent and verifiable way," added Austrian Minister Elisabeth Köstinger, who was the chief negotiator for EU states along with him.
Multilateral rules to turn the test into action. In a statement, the Commissioner welcomed "a balanced agreement on the rules for translating the Paris Agreement into action". According to him, "the EU played an instrumental role in reaching this outcome. The Paris rulebook is fundamental for enabling and encouraging climate action at all levels worldwide - and success here also means success for multilateralism and a rules based global order.” He also added: "we have acknowledged positively the IPCC's special report on global warming of 1.5°.”
The political phase of the Talanoa dialogue - an international collective conversation on how to increase the ambition level - which was to send a strong message to the world to relaunch the dynamics of climate action, has produced a mouse. All parties have, of course, reported their results and progress in terms of their nationally determined contribution (NDC). However, the international community is far from achieving this: current commitments lead to an average global warming of 3 degrees C by 2100 - far from the goal of 1.5 degrees, while the IPCC report of 8 October stressed that 1.5 degrees (the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement) is an achievable target, though rapid action is required to achieve negative emissions in the second half of the century (see EUROPE 12111, 12106).
No EU country has taken the necessary measures to meet its commitments under the Paris Agreement so far. However, 26 parties to the Agreement (out of 195), including 11 EU Member States - Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the European Commission - as well as China, have joined the most ambitious coalition (see EUROPE 12159).
Instead of a target for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990, the Commission announced, through its Vice-President for Energy, Maroš Šefčovič, that "by the end of the next decade, the reduction will be at least 45% [if all Energy/Climate legislation is implemented, Editor's note]" (see EUROPE 12151). It will also submit in 2020 a 2050 strategy that will take into account the results of COP 24 (see EUROPE 12160).
In the opinion of the European Parliament delegation present in Katowice, the outcome of COP 24 is far from the required ambition, though this COP has provided "essential elements for the implementation of the Paris Agreement": clear implementation rules.
"This is a modest result for a COP taking place in Europe, because the ambition has suffered from a difficult political context and the willingness of some delegations to sweep the IPCC report under the carpet," said Romanian MEP Adina-Ioana Vălean (EPP), who led the delegation. Saudi Arabia, Russia and Poland are not ready to leave fossil fuels behind.
No rules yet on the function of carbon markets after 2020. The major issue on the function of post-2020 carbon markets (Article 6) has been postponed until COP 25. Parties failed to agree on rules that would avoid accounting loopholes (such as double counting emission reductions) by imposing transparency obligations on credit transfers under the rules of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM after 2020).
Brazil refused to accept the rules that would require the application of corresponding adjustments for transferred credits. "Without these adjustments, a country may claim to have made emission reductions and sell these reductions to another country. If we add that there is no limit to the use of these markets, it means that countries could meet their commitments without reducing their emissions by even one tonne of carbon," warns the NGO Carbon Market Watch.
"Ambitious targets are nothing if the implementation rules contain loopholes. Europeans have had to defend the spirit of Paris tooth and nail," says Ms Valean. German MEP Jo Leinen (S&D) believes that "Katowice has not yet provided an adequate response to the warnings of climate science. There must be political responsibility and clear commitments", he said, calling for "more concrete action and support for adaptation."
Greens/EFA’s disappointment. The Greens/EFA, such as German MEP Rebecca Harms, say that they are "extremely disappointed". "EU governments have once again failed to take the lead", she deplored, pointing out "the huge gap between the government hesitation on the one hand and the expectations of scientists and citizens on the other". According to her, while scientists and the financial world are calling for more climate protection, the vast majority of governments are still relying on fossil fuels of the past and are missing a great opportunity for innovation.
"EU governments bear a heavy responsibility for these poor results because, after the US’s renunciation, the European Union should be at the forefront of international climate protection", she said in a statement. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)