A few days before the opening of COP 24 (Katowice, 2-14 December), the European Commission presented on Wednesday 28 November its vision for a future long-term EU climate strategy that should enable the European economy to be climate-neutral by 2050, mobilising the whole society.
Its communication entitled ‘A long-term European vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate-neutral economy' was highly anticipated, but already known (see EUROPE 12141, 12112). It is expected to pave the way for a strategy to be presented by the next European Commission in 2020 and will be presented at COP 24.
At a time when the UN has just issued a serious warning with its report ('Emissions Gap Report 2018') showing that no EU Member State is meeting its commitments under the Paris Agreement and calling on all countries to triple their efforts if they want to keep global warming below 2 °C, and to quintuple efforts to move towards 1.5 °C, the Commission is not proposing any increase in the EU's 2030 target (a reduction of at least 40% compared to 1990). It does not have the mandate for the international negotiations that are about to begin.
Its communication is intended to launch the debate with the European institutions, representatives of regional and local authorities and Member States. All Council formations will have to discuss this in preparation for the summit of Heads of State and Government in Sibiu next May on the future of the EU - a future in which the fight against climate change will occupy a prominent place, as in the European elections, said Commission Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and European Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy Miguel Arias Cañete. The future strategy for 2050 should be presented to the United Nations by 2020, as required by all parties to the Paris Climate Agreement.
“So far, we have focused on the transition to clean energy until 2030. A 60% reduction in emissions by 2050 will not be enough. The EU is the first major economy in the world to present its strategy for 2050", Mr. Šefčovič stressed to the press, even if, at this stage, the text is only a vision. Mr Cañete clarified that the objective was not to set objectives to be achieved, but “a course”. According to him, "climate neutrality is the right choice for our economy and the planet. Investors will have predictability", he said, adding that investments, which now represent 2% of GDP, will have to rise to 2.8% of GDP, or €175-190 billion.
For the time being, the embryonic strategy examines the options available to Member States, businesses and citizens and how they can contribute to the modernisation of the economy and the required transition to climate neutrality - a socially just transition, the Commission says. Workers in carbon-intensive sectors will be supported in their retraining, Cañete said.
The Communication sets out eight modelled scenarios that can guide action in all sectors of the economy, depending on whether the target is an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, an 85% to 95% reduction or zero emissions. But the Commission does not give preference to any of these scenarios.
The Commission underlines that achieving a climate-neutral economy is possible with existing and soon to be deployed technologies. This is also possible from an economic and social point of view, provided, however, that a profound transformation takes place within a generation and that massive investments are made - "public and private", the Commissioner said.
Achieving this climate-neutral economy would require joint action, around seven strategic priorities: - fully decarbonise the EU's energy supply through electrification and deployment of renewable energies; - maximise the potential for energy efficiency by almost halving energy consumption by 2050 compared to 2005; - promote clean, safe and connected mobility; - develop a network of intelligent infrastructure and interconnections; - exploit the full potential of the bio-economy and create natural carbon sinks through more sustainable agriculture and land use; - modernise industry and invest in carbon-neutral technologies and systems compatible with a fully circular economy; - use carbon capture and storage technology for residual emissions.
The Greens/EFA in the European Parliament regretted that the Commission does not clearly give priority to the 'zero emission' scenario by 2050 and pointed out that, of the eight scenarios, none allows the 1.5 °C target to be met. However, they welcome the fact that, for the first time, the decarbonisation of the entire European economy is being considered.
Speaking at a press conference, Dutch MEP Bas Eickhout, one of the top two Greens/EFA candidates for the next European elections (see EUROPE 12146), also lamented a lack of political momentum in the Commission's latest effort to advance the climate debate ahead of COP 24 and the European elections.
"The European Commission does not want to open the debate on raising the ambition of the 2030 target. In their analysis, they starts with 2030 to avoid this debate. However, to reach zero emissions by 2050, we must start doing more sooner”, he said, recalling the conclusions of the latest IPCC special report. He expressed disappointment that there was no intention to propose to COP 24 to increase the EU's 2030 target to at least 45% or even 55%, as requested by the European Parliament and as would be prepared by the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Sweden. "France is a key country to join the most ambitious, but it looks to Germany", he said.
Environmental NGOs, even if they hoped for better, welcome a first step. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)