An extra summit will be held on 17 and 18 November only if the Brexit negotiations with London are not concluded at the next European summit on 18 and 19 October. This is the timetable set by the Twenty-Seven in Salzburg on Thursday 20 September.
This timetable is based on the premise that by then, London will have provided the EU with all assurances on the question of the backstop to avoid a return to a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and improved its positions on the future bilateral economic relationship.
The White Paper of 12 July contains not only progress, for instance on security, but also areas of work deemed unacceptable by the EU (see EUROPE 12061).
Even so, optimism was in the air in Salzburg on Thursday. The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, said that he was slightly more optimistic about the possibility of an agreement with London by the end of 2018, but did not rule out the possibility of a further breakdown, which will lead to a no-deal withdrawal of the UK from the EU.
Tusk summed up the main elements of the position of the EU27: respect for the integrity of the single market and a solid, operational and legally binding backstop. It will take more than goodwill to achieve this, he warned.
On the Irish question, the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, announced the day before that she was soon to present a new proposed backstop, no doubt after the Conservative party conference in early October.
Earlier this week, the negotiator-in-chief of the EU, Michel Barnier, said that several ways of introducing controls on goods could be considered (see EUROPE 12099). His team is working round-the-clock to clarify the types of controls that may correspond to different types of goods.
“A 100% control-free, frictionless solution is not possible”, a different source stressed on Thursday morning, however, acknowledging that the embryonic mechanism needs to be made as flexible as possible.
May also recognised this after the Salzburg meeting: there is no solution that resolves the Irish question and is based on a seamless movement of goods.
Concerning the future relationship with the United Kingdom after Brexit, the Twenty-Seven in any event agreed that this must provide as much clarity as possible, Tusk added. Furthermore, the economic plank of this future relationship may not include any ideas in the British White Paper that are considered impracticable, such as the UK collecting customs duty on behalf of the EU and a raft of specific common rules for goods and the agri-food sector, but not services.
The proposed framework will not work, said Tusk, as it would undermine the single market.
The Polish President considers that the European Council of October will be the “moment of truth”. It is only then that the decision to hold an extraordinary summit may be made. However, several sources stress that an extraordinary summit of this kind could elevate the British withdrawal to the same level as the marathon summit in February 2016 that allowed David Cameron to negotiate a specific relationship with the EU (see EUROPE 11495).
Several heads of state or government reiterated the convergence of opinion with the negotiators and stressed their support for Barnier.
The Chequers White Paper is a “good thing” and corresponds to a bold approach on May's part, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, explained. However, the economic proposals are not acceptable as they stand, he added. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, called for an agreement to be reached in October.
The Belgian Prime Minister, Charles Michel, had to dismiss rumours that he is less intransigent towards the British. “Bullshit!”, was his succinct response to the Belgian daily newspaper Le Soir as he left Salzburg.
The Maltese and Czech Prime Ministers, Joseph Muscat and Andrej Babis, expressed their hope that a second referendum will be held in the UK on Brexit. These hopes were crushed by May, who reiterated that there will be no further referendum on the withdrawal of the country. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with Mathieu Bion)