The UK is hoping for a Brexit breakthrough at next week’s EU summit, but officials in Brussels are playing down the chances.
First, the meeting is not set up for a Brexit debate. UK premier Theresa May will brief her counterparts at the end of a dinner on 19 September that is primarily dedicated to migration. It is not until lunch the next day when the 27 remaining leaders will hear from EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier and hold talks.
Second, there has been so little progress on the exit treaty that the EU is in no mood to make any moves on the future relationship, which is the big prize for the UK. So, the stalemate continues. Brexit secretary Dominic Raab said on Friday (after a phone call with Mr Barnier) that negotiators were “closing in on workable solutions” but admitted there “remain some substantive differences”.
Third, Theresa May is running out of goodwill, both at home and in the EU, so any hope that she can turn around the talks is misplaced. “We have stopped guessing whether May will still be there,” one senior EU official told The B-Word. “The real parameter is: whatever we negotiate with the UK, will there be a majority for it [in Westminster]?”
On the plus side, there has been somewhat of a thaw in relations. Mr Raab has injected a bit more energy into the talks. And Mr Barnier has been putting a more positive spin on the UK’s ideas for the future. Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker backed him up in his state of the union speech this week, saying the UK “will never be an ordinary third country” after Brexit, and called the Chequers plan a good “starting point”.
The shift in tone is important, because it is in the next few weeks that Commission officials will begin drafting the declaration on the future relationship. That document will be based largely on the guidelines issued by EU leaders at a summit in March, which proposed a zero-tariff free trade agreement flanked by deals on defence, cross-border crimes, data and research.
A free trade agreement is something the UK can get behind. In the government’s July white paper, they talk about a zero-tariff “free trade area”. But the other suggestions in the white paper - that the UK collect tariffs on the EU’s behalf, and diverge from some EU rules - have been rejected. For one very senior EU official, the UK has not yet accepted the “reality that Brexit means Brexit”.
The trick for the Commission will be how to sell the free trade deal, not only to Brexiteers, but to Remain supporters in the UK (who will want more), and to nervous EU governments (especially France and Germany) who want legal certainty about what they’re getting into.
Meanwhile, back in London, the ‘no deal’ panic continues.
The government published around 30 new preparedness notices, warning Britons that in the event of a no-deal Brexit they will face restrictions travelling to the EU on UK passports. UK transport secretary Chris Grayling has also written to his EU counterparts to ask for assurances that planes, trains and road hauliers can move freely in the event of a no-deal Brexit. But the most jarring ‘no deal’ warning came from central bank governor Mark Carney, who reportedly told a cabinet meeting on Brexit that the UK could face a 35% crash in house prices over three years.
Back in Brussels next week on Tuesday, foreign and Europe ministers will meet and hear from Mr Barnier on the Commission’s no-deal preparations and on the state of negotiations. At this stage, however, they don’t have much to talk about. (Sarah Collins)