The European Commission is still officially working on the premise that agreement on Brexit will be reached with the United Kingdom in October but it is preparing for all possibilities, including that of no deal. It was the no deal scenario that it detailed in a communication on Thursday 19 July designed to assist the member states, companies and citizens prepare for this eventuality.
While some diplomats were continuing to say on Thursday morning, ahead of the General Affairs (Article 50 format) Council on 20 July, that they were “confident” that an agreement between the UK and the EU was still possible in October, the Commission wants to make sure that every European citizen is fully apprised of what awaits. The difficulty it faces, according to a European source, is in reaching the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
The Commission says that the member states, or at least some of them, are quite well-advanced in their preparations for Brexit – which will, in theory, happen on 30 March 2019 – and, indeed, for a no-deal. Ireland, the country most directly affected, is ready, as is the Netherlands. Belgium has just launched an internet site that allows companies to test their level of preparedness.
The Commission has already published 68 notices for companies informing them how to proceed after 30 March 2019, for example, with their permits and other authorisations obtained in the UK. Every sector is covered, from customs policy to the medicines sector, from professional qualifications to the agrifood sector and air transport, with the aim of preventing major disruptions.
The communication attempts, too, to deal with the fate of European citizens but, in the event of no deal, the Commission says simply that EU citizens in the UK will not be covered by any particular arrangements.
In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Commission states that EU law will cease to apply in and to the United Kingdom from 30 March 2019 (or until the end of 2020 if there is a post-Brexit transition period in the event of agreement being reached on the UK’s withdrawal). The EU will have to change from one day to the next and apply its rules and tariffs and also its sanitary and phytosanitary checks at its borders with the UK, which will have become a third country.
Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union could be “seriously impacted”, the communication says, adding: “Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports “.
In trade and regulatory issues, relations between the EU and the UK will be governed by World Trade Organisation rules, the document states.
Thirteen weeks. This is a situation which the EU described at the very beginning of negotiations in spring 2017 as a “leap in the dark” and one that both parties said they wanted to avoid at all costs.
This is still the official position, with both the UK and the EU seeking to come to an agreement. Talks are continuing on the various aspects of the withdrawal, in particular, the “backstop” position on the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland and on the nature of the future relationship, though little progress has been made hitherto on either of these matters.
New UK Brexit Minister Dominic Raab met EU negotiator Michel Barnier for the first time on Thursday evening. On his arrival, he said he wanted to inject “renewed vigour” into negotiations with Barnier. Barnier was unable to work very intensively with Raab’s predecessor, David Davis. “There are only 13 weeks left” before the October European summit, Barnier made clear from the very outset.
This Friday, Barnier will take stock with EU foreign ministers of the situation in the talks. Ministers are likely to ask about the Commission’s preparation for all outcomes after October and will also discuss the White Paper published by Theresa May’s government on 12 July (see EUROPE 12061).
Ministers will not, however, take an official position on the White Paper, stated the above quoted diplomat, the document not being for discussion but seen more as a contribution.
The Commission could be asked by ministers on Friday to seek clarification from the UK on a number of points as “not everything is clear” in the document, for example, the links between the free-trade area for goods that London is seeking and arrangements on the provision of services. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)