Ministers and representatives of ministers with responsibility for home affairs and migration, meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday 5 June, were unable to break the deadlock on reforming the Dublin regulation which frames member states’ responsibilities on asylum and failed to remove fears of possible failure (or indeed of definitive failure) of the reform on 29 June, when heads of state and/or government meet.
“I’ll be frank. It will be difficult to reach a compromise but I’m sure we’re on the right track”, said Bulgarian Home Affairs Minister Valentin Radev after the meeting, calling on leaders to take the right decisions on 29 June.
While the Bulgarian Presidency feels its compromise proposals remain on the table ahead of the summit, numerous delegations were wondering on Tuesday about the chances of finding a consensus, at least on the basis of the Bulgarian text. Belgian Secretary of State Theo Francken was blunt: in his view, reform of the Dublin regulation is quite simply “dead”.
To date, according to a source from a northern European country, “no qualified majority” has been formed and the proposal would not have been adopted had a vote been held. From the East, the Visegrad countries remain resolute in their rejection of compulsory measures on the relocation of asylum seekers, which continue to feature in the Bulgarian compromise, while, from the south, countries such as Italy take the view that responsibilities are too heavy for the countries of first entry and solidarity measures insufficient.
The meeting, an informal breakfast lasting three hours, provided the opportunity for some countries, such as Germany, to call for a number of significant improvements. German Secretary of State to the Ministry of the Interior Stephan Mayer said that some aspects of the current text were even unacceptable. The German government would like member states’ continuing responsibility to be ten years while the Bulgarian Presidency is proposing eight. Berlin also wants to include beneficiaries of international protection in the Dublin regulation, as does France, but is not yet satisfied with the arrangements discussed.
Germany, in any event, does not want to get rid of the principle of a minimum level of solidarity and is unlikely to agree to any solution that does not contain a compulsory relocation strand for everyone.
“The chances of success are slim”, a diplomatic source said. “We can’t see a solution on quotas”, indicated another national source.
Austria thinking of offering proposals in July. Austrian Home Affairs Minister Herbert Kickl restated the position of the incoming Presidency, that too much time had been spent on quotas, which create division among the member states, and that efforts should go into managing external borders and solidarity measures with the countries of origin to prevent people coming to Europe.
What the incoming Austrian Presidency does on the Dublin regulation will depend on what EU leaders say at the summit, a Presidency source indicated, with Vienna waiting to find out whether, in the event of failure, it will be mandated to continue efforts on the basis of the Bulgarian text or whether it will be asked to bring forward new proposals.
It is already thinking, in the event of failure at the summit, of presenting new avenues for discussion at the informal meeting in Innsbruck, scheduled to take place on 12 July. These will ask what really has to be done with this reform. Vienna is keen, at any rate, to place the focus clearly on the external borders and on Frontex, as well as on solidarity with countries of origin and transit.
Italy wants compulsory, automatic relocation. “We need an agreement”, Swedish Migration Minister Hélène Fritzon told the press on Tuesday. But “the political climate is harder today”, complicating matters, she added, referring to the new government in power in Italy.
In Rome, at the swearing in of his government, the new Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, stated that the Dublin regulation absolutely had to be reformed and that Italy would argue for a system of “compulsory, automatic relocation”.
That is also what the European Parliament proposed in its position at the end of 2017, something a source from a major country still deemed “unrealistic” on Tuesday 5 June. France refused to consider yesterday that it was all gloom and doom. Minister Jacqueline Gourault, speaking to a small group of journalists, conceded that agreement was difficult to find and was unlikely by 29 June. However, there is not total deadlock, in France’s view: changes could be brought forward that would bring the most reluctant on board. Without stating what they are, the French government has in mind adjustments for the countries that present the most difficulties, such as the Visegrad countries. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)