Since “sufficient progress” has been made in the first phase, leaders of the EU27 gave approval on Friday 13 December for Brexit talks between the United Kingdom and the European Union to move on to the second phase.
These negotiations will focus on the transition period lasting around two years from March 2019 that was requested by London. Discussions on this point are likely to begin at the end of January.
Talks on the future bilateral relationship are not expected to begin before March: the UK has been asked to clarify how it sees the future, in trade, defence and security. Once it becomes clear what the United Kingdom, which is looking to leave the internal market and customs union, wants, the European Council will adopt specific guidelines.
On Friday, as EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier said on Tuesday 12 December (see EUROPE 11924), it will be pointed out to London that progress in the second phase will only be possible if what has been achieved in the first phase, as summarised in the joint agreement between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker (see EUROPE 11922) is respected.
This preliminary agreement covers citizens’ rights, the financial settlement and arrangements on the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Dublin says that the solutions found constitute “a sound basis”.
On Friday, it is unlikely that discussions at the summit will enter into the details of the future relationship. One thing is certain, however: the EU’s concern is to achieve a sound balance between access to the single market and conditions with which the United Kingdom will have to comply.
The UK wants “better access than Canada and fewer constraints than Norway”, observed one diplomat, opining that it will be “very difficult to find a solution” to these conditions. Last weekend, Chief British Negotiator David Davis spoke of a “Canada plus, plus, plus” type of agreement.
“We want an overarching trade deal which has no tariffs. An overarching trade deal, including services. Canada, plus, plus, plus would be one way of putting it”, he said.
The EU also already knows what it will demand of London in the transition period. During this period, which is to be time-limited, the UK will have to comply with all European rules, acknowledge the primacy of the Court of Justice, pay into the European budget and all this without having any decision-making role. It is “everything but the institutions”, commented a high-ranking diplomat.
It is at the end of January, at a General Affairs Council, that the talks on the transition phase will actually begin, although the EU27 could still, before that, make internal preparations on the basis of the specific guidelines which they will approve on Friday.
Positive Parliament resolution despite everything. In Strasbourg on Wednesday, European Parliament adopted a new non-binding resolution authorising the move to the second phase of negotiations (see EUROPE 11924).
While it was with no suspense with regard to the message that Parliament was preparing to deliver on moving to the second phase, comments by David Davis that the agreement of 8 December was non-binding, caused MEPs to toughen their tone somewhat and to recommend that the said agreement be firmly legally-based.
The negotiating process set out in the treaty (Article 50) states that commitments made in the two phases should be retained in the final withdrawal agreement which will have to be approved by the European Parliament and the UK parliament.
In its resolution, which was adopted by a wide majority (556 votes to 62, with 68 abstentions), Parliament identifies five outstanding issues to be resolved: - extending coverage of citizens’ rights to future partners; - a light-touch, declaratory administrative procedure must be available for EU and UK citizens applying for “permanent residence status”; - European Court of Justice decisions on citizens’ rights must be binding, and the role of the ombudsman created to act on citizens’ complaints must be defined; - the right of free movement for UK citizens currently residing in the EU27 member states must be guaranteed; - the UK’s commitments on Northern Ireland must be implemented. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic with the editorial staff)