On Wednesday 1 February, the co-leader of the Strategic Advisory Group for Supporting Ukrainian Reforms (SAGSUR) and Slovakia's former foreign affairs minister, Ivan Mikloš, told EUROPE that Ukraine had achieved "really significant" progress since the Maidan events three years ago, but that it should nevertheless speed up its reform process.
For the first time in its modern history, "Ukraine is making real changes to make a market economy work and to move forwards on European integration", he said. "What is has done over the last three years, especially since last year, is truly remarkable – particularly in the area of macro-economic stabilisation, and also in defence and the military". Before these initial changes, the situation was "really desperate".
In one year, Ukraine has indeed cut its budget deficit – from over 10% in 2014 to less than 3% in 2015. "These are huge results", Mikloš said. At the same time, inflation has been stabilised. Ukraine has also cleaned up its banking system, with the closure of 80 of the country's 180 banks. Reforms have been made in the energy sector, with the deregulation of prices. "These reforms are the most significant anti-corruption measures taken", he said, because these sectors were blighted by corruption.
Speeding up reforms. "Of course, I'm not saying everything is perfect. There are many problems. This could go more quickly, but it's a political process. It's not easy", Mikloš said, adding that the rather complicated situation in Europe, as in Ukraine, should be seen as an additional reason for speeding up the reforms.
Mikloš also highlighted the need for reforms in several other areas, especially the agricultural land market, the protection of property rights and privatisation. "There hasn't been any privatisation in Ukraine for eleven years. This is a huge, inefficient and corrupt sector. There are currently over 3,300 state-owned enterprises in Ukraine, and 1,500 of them don't work. And out of the 1,800 that do work, many of them are not efficient", he said. Another priority sector is that of deregulation. "Artificial regulation was huge. It's a source of corruption and this also destroys equal opportunities, and fair and just competition", he said.
But the form process suffers from difficult communication between the government and parliament (Verhovna Rada). While the parliament supports the government in principle, in reality its members do not necessarily vote for the reforms proposed. Under Arseniy Yatsenyuk's government in 2015, only 37% of parliamentary proposals were adopted.
In Mikloš' opinion, it could be said that Ukraine will have achieved the necessary reforms when the country has a true market economy. "I think that in two or three years, if the reforms continue, we will be able to say that the most important issues have been resolved and that there is a solid basis for the development of a functioning market economy", he said. Mikloš forecast that judicial reform could be concluded within 18 months, that the land market reform might be in place by 1 January 2018, and that the privatisation process could take a minimum of two to three years.
Composed of 11 members, SAGSUR was created last April after the formation of Volodymyr Groysman's government, at the request of president Petro Poroshenko and the prime minister. Financed by the EU and EBRD, the goal of SAGSUR is to advise the president and prime minister on reforms to be conducted in the country. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)