Fearing new arrivals on the Italian coast this spring, the European leaders will try to come to an agreement at their informal summit in Valletta, Malta, on Friday 3 February about measures to limit migrant departures from Libya's shores.
"After having stabilised the situation in the eastern Mediterranean, our focus will this time be on operational measures to address the challenge of the massive flows of irregular migrants in the central Mediterranean region", European Council President Donald Tusk stated in his letter of invitation to the European leaders on Tuesday 31 January. "We will continue our long term-action with African partners through the Partnership framework and the Valletta Action Plan. But the situation on the ground requires immediate and urgent action, with and around Libya, where the vast majority of irregular migrants depart from", he added.
Ten days after the European Commission's presentation of a package of specific actions (see EUROPE 11711), the 28 EU member states are thus expected to take on the responsibility for this and to insist on both training for the Libyan coastguard and socio-economic development aid from the departing migrants' countries of origin and transit. Projects from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees aimed at improving the living conditions of migrants in Libya or the neighbouring countries are also expected to be supported.
There is a risk that these measures might not enable the new flows of migrants to be avoided in spring, a national diplomatic source stated on Tuesday 31 January.
There were 181,000 migrant arrivals in Italy in 2016. Compared with 2015, migrant arrivals from Libya increased by +18% in 2016, with 90% of them taking place in Italy. "How long can Italy hold out?", a national diplomat asked on Wednesday 1 February.
Key problem: failing Libyan state. Europeans are up against a major obstacle – the lack of a viable state in Libya or any real discussion partners. European Commissioner for Migration Dimitris Avramopoulos has already highlighted this problem to the European Parliament's civil liberties committee.
The prime minister of the Libyan national unity government, Fayez al-Sarraj, arrived in Brussels on Wednesday. On Thursday, he will meet European Council President Donald Tusk and High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini.
No parallel with migration agreement with Turkey. No specific agreement, based especially on sending migrants back to Libya, is expected to be made at this meeting. The member states mostly believe that the situations in Libya and Turkey are not comparable and should not receive the same response (see EUROPE 11515). Discussions will therefore focus on the extent of assistance to be provided to the Libyan authorities, with Libya and Malta being particularly concerned.
Other countries, this diplomatic source said, could also ask for Greece and the Aegean Sea route not to be forgotten in the discussions. This is what some delegations, which do not want the most divisive subject of asylum to be on the discussion table would like – in other words, concretisation of the principle of solidarity between member states (see EUROPE 11712). (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)