Despite the difficulties currently facing the milk market, there could be opportunities for the EU dairy sector to expand, in response, for example, to increasing demand within the EU, says the European Commission in its report on the medium-term outlook in agriculture until 2026 that was published on Tuesday 6 December.
The report on the prospects for agricultural markets was discussed on Wednesday 7 December at the conference in Brussels devoted to that subject. On the first day of the conference, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker delivered a speech on the future of the common agricultural policy (CAP) (see EUROPE 11683).
Cereals. According to the report, the Commission expects further concentration towards the main commodity crops like common wheat, maize and barley at the expense of other cereals. EU cereal demand could increase by 6 % by 2026. Export prospects remain positive for common wheat and, to a lesser extent, barley. Cereal prices, above their long-term average, are expected to remain lower than their recent peaks at between €160 per tonne and €170 per tonne by 2026. The Commission notes a decrease in the area devoted to the cultivation of rapeseed and an increase in soybean imports. The demand for biofuels is expected to stagnate.
Milk and dairy products. The rise in EU milk production in the next decade is expected to be moderate (+1.3 million tonnes of milk per year on average), according to Commission estimates. Nonetheless, the EU is expected to become the world’s top exporter of dairy products by 2026, just ahead of New Zealand.
Meat. After a strong recovery in 2014 and 2015, EU meat consumption per capita is expected to decline slightly, except for poultry whose market share could marginally increase. A small increase in pig meat production will be driven by export demand, while beef production is expected to see a moderate decrease, the Commission forecasts. (Original version in French by Lionel Changeur)