Due to technological development, lower costs and significant political support, renewable energies are expected to experience stronger growth than expected between now and 2021, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual medium-term report on green energy, published on Tuesday 25 October. This acceleration at a global level, however, conceals regional differences and also depends on public policies that support these energies, the IEA states.
A volume of 825 gigawatts (GW) in new renewable energy capacity is expected to be in place by 2021. This is equivalent to a 42% increase compared with 2015 levels and represents an upward revised estimate of 13% since the IEA’s previous estimates.
These “more optimistic” prospects follow a record year in 2015 in the development of land wind turbine power and solar energy, with 112 GW in capacity installed for these two technologies and 153 GW in capacity installed for renewable energy as a whole.
“We are witnessing a transformation of global power markets led by renewables and, as is the case with other fields, the centre of gravity for renewable growth is moving to emerging markets”, said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director.
According to the most recent IEA forecasts, renewables will account for 28% of global electricity production in 2021, compared with 23% at the end of 2015, which was a record year in terms of investment and installation. This is the equivalent of current electricity production in the US and EU.
The IEA explains that this increase it is due to falling costs in wind and solar power, a decrease that has been significant over recent years and which is set to further intensify. By 2021, costs are expected to fall by a further 25% for solar power and by 15% for terrestrial wind power. These two technologies alone are expected to account for three quarters of new electricity capacity created over this period.
The scenario is less dynamic for other kinds of energy. The introduction of new hydroelectric capacity will slow down and biomass, solar concentration, geothermal power and ocean generated power will also increase but at a slower pace. The IEA also expects very slow progress from renewable heat and biofuels, due to the direct impact of low oil prices.
Overall, this development is partly due to the introduction of more favourable policies, particularly in the US, China and India, as well as Mexico. A decrease in the costs of these energies also explains this evolution. At a more general level, Asia is beginning to take the lead in green energies and will account for more than half of all total expected growth in this area, the IEA explains. (Original version in French by Emmanuel Hagry)