Unlike the summits in 2015 and early 2016, the EU28 will not be meeting on Thursday 20 October for another refugee crisis summit, explained a European diplomat on Tuesday 18 October, but for a much calmer session.
Despite the recent Hungarian referendum on the compulsory nature of sharing out asylum-seekers and the plan by Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban (in spite of the referendum’s failure) to make changes in the Hungarian constitution, the EU’s leaders are expected to talk about follow-up to their decisions, particularly application of the March 2016 agreement with Turkey (see EUROPE 11515) and foreign policy on migration matters, in a much less confrontational and divided context than in all the recent summits, added another diplomatic source. The latter said that refugee flows had been under control since 18 March, in the Greek islands at least. The EU28 will begin the summit on Thursday afternoon with the refuge question in the late afternoon, which will be followed by publication of a conclusions document.
The new backdrop, alongside the fact that the number of migrants arriving via the eastern Mediterranean route (from Turkey to Greece) has fallen by 98% in a year, is also due to the "appeasing" words of President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, who in his state of the Union speech at the European Parliament in mid-September said that solidarity could not be imposed on the member states from the outside, explained the same source. In addition, there is a desire not to jeopardise work already undertaken to reform the right to asylum, a situation that makes the context far less tricky than before, said the source.
Not everything is consensual when it comes to migration issues, however. Hungary is expected to insist that it wants to show solidarity on migration policy but deciding itself on how that is to be done, explained a Hungarian source on Wednesday 19 October, pointing out the contribution Hungary is already making to the policy of strengthening Schengen’s borders, the refugee fund for Turkey and the fund for Africa.
No decrease in numbers of illegal aliens arriving in the central Mediterranean. The route via the Aegean Sea seems to be under control, but the route via the central Mediterranean through Italy is giving rise to questions. The numbers have not risen but remain at the same level as in 2015, due to the chaos in Libya. In order to deal with this situation that is ongoing and causing a great burden on Italy, European leaders will discuss targeted migration partnerships, which are currently under way with five African nations – Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Ethiopia (see EUROPE 11648). The EU28 will demand concrete outcomes at the December summit and the debate on Thursday evening might include talk of extending these partnerships, which combine financial aid with commitments to a policy of accepting returns of illegal immigrants, to other countries – such as Egypt, Bangladesh and Pakistan – although the priority is first to verify the efficacy of such partnerships.
In a conclusions document dated Monday 17 October (a new draft is expected to circulate on Wednesday evening), the EU28 were expected to hail the entry into force of a number of decisions, such as that on the European Border Guard and Coast Guard Agency becoming operational (see EUROPE 11640) and call the European Parliament to order on a number of questions. One of them will be the plan to set up a systematic control of people crossing the Schengen Area’s borders, which is currently blocked at the inter-institutional negotiations stage but it is aimed to have final agreement by the end of the year.
When it comes to asylum, no in-depth discussions are expected, such as on the infamous ‘flexible solidarity’ recommended by central European nations, and the European summit is expected simply to repeat its desire to make progress with reforms. A number of delegations would like commitments on timing, however. President of the European Council Donald Tusk is expected to ask Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico to give an outline of how he sees flexible solidarity, explained a diplomat on Tuesday 18 October, adding that the summit would have the job of constructing much wider consensus on the meaning of the concept when it comes to dealing with migration – a question the EU28 would have to return to "sooner or later".
Meanwhile, a draft conclusions document dated 17 October stipulates only that the European summit calls for work to continue on this reform (which includes review of the Dublin Regulation) and for work to continue on how to apply the principles of solidarity and responsibility.
EU heads of state are expected to point out that they want the return of illegal immigrants from Greece to Turkey to be speeded up and to give extra staff to the European Asylum Support Office (EASO), the body handing returns. According to draft conclusions dated 17 October, the heads of state will reiterate the need to step up relocation efforts, particularly for unaccompanied minors. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)