After previous visits to Brussels as the home affairs minister, Theresa May will make her first official visit to the European Council – on Thursday 20 and Friday 21 October – as the United Kingdom prime minister, following the decision taken by her country on 23 June to leave the EU.
Though a number of diplomatic sources from other member states have tried to downplay the importance of the UK question at this autumn summit, very close attention will be paid to what May has to say on her intentions. When the 28 heads of state and/or government meet for dinner on Thursday evening, European Council President Donald Tusk will call on her to inform her colleagues of the situation in the UK. She is expected, also, to hold a number of meetings on the sidelines of the Council with leaders whom she has yet to meet and others to whom she has already spoken.
The update on the situation will be given during dinner, which will be devoted to Russia. No substantial discussion on Brexit is scheduled and Tusk “will not encourage debate”, a source revealed on Tuesday 18 October. Only one thing is virtually certain at this point: as the prime minister has already announced, Article 50 of the Treaty, which enacts the parting of the ways, will be triggered in the first quarter of 2017, before the end of March. There is no doubt that Brexit will happen, another diplomatic source commented, everyone having come round to the idea that the decision is irreversible.
May is likely on Thursday to reiterate this commitment but will not give any more information on the exact nature of the desired relationship with the EU, no decision having yet been reached on this. The UK leader is likely to repeat that she will look for the best possible agreement both for the United Kingdom and for the remaining member states, her goal not being to undermine the 27-country European project. The controversy over a “hard Brexit” is somewhat of a red herring, according to the second source. Leaving the EU is uncharted territory, but it will clearly bring consequences and fundamental changes and it would be good to have, if not preparatory discussions, something European leaders have publicly rejected, at least a sound mutual understanding of what these changes will involve.
May will also meet Jean Claude Juncker, on Friday morning. The two do not know each other well. May will no doubt speak about the domestic situation in the UK but her visit to Brussels will, above all, provide her with the opportunity to listen to the others, the source said. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)