Brussels, 07/07/2016 (Agence Europe) - The levels of flexibility incorporated in the effort-sharing among the member states to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the sectors not covered by the ETS (mainly agriculture, transport, construction and waste) are becoming clearer and figures have already been put to the member states in the latest bilateral talks between the Commission and each of the 28 states, it was learned on Thursday 7 July.
These closely honed figures will be unveiled by the Commission on 20 July in the climate legislative package, baptised the “summer package”, which will also contain a strategy for the decarbonisation of transport (EUROPE 11578). They will be decisive if the EU's 2030 climate goals are to be achieved, and also for the contribution of agriculture and forestry (land use, land-use change and forestry, LULUCF), transport, construction, waste and light industry to the collective effort as well as for implementation of the Paris Climate Agreement.
LULUCF flexibility. Flexibility will extend to 280 million tonnes of credits over ten years. “It's not yet known how these credits could be used nor whether it will be possible to sell them. But the figure is unlikely to change”, a diplomatic source told EUROPE. The figure is most likely to refer only to afforestation, reforestation, croplands and grazing land. In theory, credits from forest management should not be used in the same manner.
ETS flexibility. In addition, 100 million tonnes of surplus credits from the ETS, that have become known as “hot air credits” (assigned amount units, AAUs), could be used over ten years in effort-sharing. These AAUs could be turned into allocation emission allowances (AEAs).
According to one expert, if they are confirmed, these flexibilities could see the EU emissions reduction effort between 2021 and 2030 cut to 38%. The reduction effort till 2030 in non-ETS sectors would be cut to 26%. The climate and energy framework endorsed by the European Council of October 2014, it should be remembered, stipulates a 30% reduction in emissions by non-ETS sectors by 2030, compared with 2005 levels (EUROPE 11184).
The latest round bilateral discussions between each of the member states and the European Commission (Secretariat General and DG Climate Action) is currently taking place.
Three figures per member state. On 20 July, all the figures proposed by the Commission will feature on a table containing three percentages for each member state: one representing the emissions reduction target as part of effort-sharing, a second showing the LULUCF flexibility (the right to use LULUCF credits) and a third indicating ETS flexibility (the right to use surplus ETS credits).
Luxembourg and Sweden have already been set a reduction target of 40% in effort-sharing. This comes as no surprise since the European Council guidelines of October 2014 provided an emissions reduction effort of 40% for the richest countries and of 0% for the least well-off. The meetings with Finland and Germany took place on 5 July.
In its preparatory work, the Commission was put under severe pressure by Ireland, a country with a large agricultural sector, Finland, a forestry country, and Poland, a forestry country that is heavily dependent on coal, countries which, from 2014, have battled fiercely for their specific circumstances to be taken into account. Each of these member states wants to be able to use emissions offsetting from each of the LULUCF sectors to achieve their targets in the non-ERTS sectors.
Environmental and forest protection NGOs have, for months, been concerned at the possible reduction in EU and Paris Agreement climate targets by the implementation of the flexibilities (EUROPE 11581, 11572). When asked to comment on this outline proposal, Hannah Mowat of the NGO FERN “Making the EU work for people and forests” said that it sends the unhelpful signal that countries can choose between planting trees or reducing pollution. She said: “If we continue to believe that trees can offset our emissions, we will miss the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees or even 2 degrees Celsius, that's for sure”. FERN says it is very important to take account of biodiversity, given that numerous tree plantations across Europe have been disastrous for biodiversity. It argues for a shift towards sustainable food and a sustainable agricultural model that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)