Paris-Le Bourget, 09/12/2015 (Agence Europe) - The race against the clock began on Wednesday 9 December in Paris to try to reach a global climate agreement on Friday 11 December. Laurent Fabius, the president of COP 21, is more determined to achieve this than ever, even though he admits that “there is still a lot to do”.
The 195 countries had until 8 o'clock on Wednesday evening 9 November, to proceed to an analysis of the new “cleaned up” and shortened text (29 pages instead of 43), which was presented to them at 3 o'clock in the afternoon. The plenary session is then expected to examine this shorter draft again but which still contains many different options and appendices.
Summing up the progress made in the work so far up to the publication of the new draft, Laurent Fabius, announced that negotiations had been concluded on the adaptation and now needed to focus on the losses and damages caused by global warming and which is very dear to the hearts of developing and the most vulnerable countries.
The context of transparent commitments pertaining to the different parties is “almost concluded”. Significant advances have been made in the area of development and technology transfer. Progress was also made on forests, the resources available for cooperation and the preamble to the agreement.
Fabius warned, however, that “on all these subjects that have been the subject of consensus, we are proposing a decent text but nothing is agreed until everything else has been”.
Three extremely important political questions still need to be decided: differentiation, financing and the level of ambition in the agreement. Therefore, there are still many different hours and sleepless nights ahead for negotiators if they are going to achieve the level of ambition sought by the EU and the NGOs. Everyone believes that the French Presidency has been “faultless” on the organisation and the method. Mathieu Orphelin from the Fondation Hulot stated “We are expecting it to be very good and we will be able to get the 195 different countries to support a high level of ambition. Everything is still left to play for”. Since the presentation of the streamlined text, which is still largely unreadable, Matthias Groote MEP (S&D) was delighted that “mention was made of the 1.5° target” for average global warming. In reality, on this point, three options are envisaged: well below 2°C, well below 1.5° and 1.5°.
The US Secretary of State, John Kerry, said that “we have 48 hours to finish the work” and he made a heartfelt appeal for an ambitious agreement that would prove that the world's leaders “meant what they said” and would allow the governments to “finally commit to clean energy economy”: an agreement containing a verification system and regular statement to give the public and private sectors confidence and to develop a transparent strong and binding system. Kerry recognised that adaptation and resilience were “a question of life and death” for small island countries (AOSIS), which have legitimate concerns but which have not contributed to the problem at all. Turning gestures into words, he announced that the US would double its investment in adaptation by 2020.
Mathieu Orphelin from the Fondation Hulot stated: “The final ambition in the agreement is still undecided. The text contains ambitious options as well as those that are not ambitious at all”. Helen Szoke, the director of Oxfam International is concerned by the lack of progress on key questions and spoke of this moment of truth and that “the chance to establish new financing objectives from 2020, the date of the entry into force of the agreement, is on the table and must stay there, if the developing countries are allowed to hope for more support in the coming years”.
Pre-2020 action and financing. Revision of the commitments (INDC): for the time being there is a mention in the decision, in the annex, of a facilitation dialogue in 2017-2018; the NGOs would like a first balance sheet to be drawn up for INDC in 2017-2018. Strengthening financing and the position of adaptation: for the time being, it has been said that the position of adaptation is expected to be strengthened. The NGOs want a targeted objective of $32 billion in 2020 and that there is a method in the agreement.
Post-2020 action and financing. The five yearly revision cycle is agreed upon. It has been supported by the high ambition coalition, which brings together more than 100 countries, including the European Union, the US, China, Brazil, the small island countries, Gambia, Mexico and Norway. India is still appealing for 10 years. The text stipulates that there will be no step backwards possible in the level of ambition of the national contributions but the first global balance sheet has still been set for 2024, without a first post-2020 revision date being set.
For post-2020 financing, there appears to be a joint determination to establish a balance between mitigation and adaptation but only at a qualitative level. The developed countries will be the driving force, with $100 billion a year in favour of developing countries. The emerging and transitional countries (non-Annexe 1) could also contribute. Several options have been opened with regard to a revision cycle for financial commitments but the idea of a five yearly revision suggested by the five major emerging countries (South Africa, India, Brazil, China and Russia) was not included.
Carbon prices. For the time being, there is still a mention, not in the text of the agreement, but in its annex. The countries recognise that setting the price for carbon fuels is a good tool. (Original version in French by Aminata Niang)