Brussels, 13/11/2015 (Agence Europe) - The leaders of the 20 most powerful countries will discuss migration throughout the world and the crisis in Syria at their annual summit to be held in Antalya, Turkey, on Sunday 15 and Monday 16 November.
European leaders support the approach of the host country in making the migration crisis a topic for discussion at dinner on Sunday evening, along with terrorism. They know that other powers, such as China and Russia, do not believe that the G20, which has traditionally concentrated on economic and financial issues, is the right forum for discussion of the refugee question. “It will be difficult to sell. Some countries are saying that migration is not a matter for the G20”, confirmed a high-ranking European official. Inclusion of reference to migration in the summit's final statement will, then, be difficult to achieve. Yet it is a global issue, even though in Europe, mention of migration makes one think first and foremost of the current flow of refugees fleeing the war in Syria and Afghanistan and African migrants.
In Antalya, the presidents of the European Council and European Commission, Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, will work to have recognised the scale and the impact of the migration crisis on economies (see EUROPE 11424). They will launch a call for the countries of the G20 to ensure that the international financial and humanitarian organisations involved in assisting refugees are sufficiently well funded and for them to redouble their efforts on resettling refugees.
In the run-up to the G20 summit, the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said in her blog at the start of the week that the calculations by her organisation “show a modest positive impact on growth from migrants in EU countries”. This is a position shared by the European Commission in its autumn economic forecast for member states (see EUROPE 11425).
The European Union and Turkey, which has more than two million Syrians fleeing conflict on its soil, are negotiating an action plan designed to curb the flow of refugees trying to reach Europe, mainly through Greece after crossing through Turkey (see EUROPE 11404). At an informal summit in Malta on Thursday 12 November, European leaders expressed their desire to speed up cooperation with Turkey over migration, with a further bilateral summit being held, perhaps at the end of this month or start of next (see EUROPE 11429).
Syria at the heart of concerns. Because of its close geographical proximity to the Syrian crisis and the presence of leaders directly involved in the conflict, the Antalya summit will provide the opportunity to discuss the situation in Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose position is much strengthened domestically after his recent clear election victory, despite certain autocratic tendencies, says he is ready to take stronger action against Kurdish movements which he describes as terrorist threats. Turkey, which has opened its air bases to United States-led international coalition aircraft, wants to see the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime, which has been supported by the recent Russian military intervention. Moscow has also gone on the diplomatic offensive with proposals for political transition in Syria. A meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US opposite number Barack Obama on the sidelines of the summit had yet to be confirmed on Friday 13 November.
EU seeking redefinition of G20 role. World leaders will also take stock of the economic and financial situation, where growth has slowed in the emerging countries and the United States and Europe are following differing monetary policies.
From Europe has come a call for a “redefinition” of the role of the G20, which, having been established to address the 2008 global financial crisis after the housing bubble in the United States burst, could now become “an instrument for preventing crises”, according to the above-mentioned high-ranking European official. Hence the development of the TLAC (total loss-absorbing capacity) cushion by the Financial Stability Board for the 30 largest systemic banks, 12 of which are established in the EU (see EUROPE 11427). These banks will be required to hold a safety cushion capable of absorbing possible losses equivalent to 16% of weighted assets depending on risk at 1 January 2019 and 18% by 2022. These banks will have to have a 6% leverage ratio by the start of 2019 and 6.75% by the start of 2022. Banks established in emerging countries will have more extended deadlines: 2025 for the safety cushion and 2028 for the leverage ratio.
Lastly, the G20 summit will approve the OECD's BEPS action plan to address damaging tax optimisation by multinationals on which agreement was reached at the “Finance G20” in Lima in October (see EUROPE 11407). The EU claims to be leading the way in this area, with a law adopted on the automatic tax rulings exchange and another, to be unveiled at the start of 2016 which will seek to incorporate parts of the BEPS action plan into EU law. The EU will argue for careful monitoring by the OECD of the measures taken by participants. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)