Brussels, 24/06/2015 (Agence Europe) - There will not be obligatory relocation quotas for migrants between the member states, and if the EU28 should come to an agreement on a mechanism for sharing out the asylum seekers this would only involve “around 40,000 people”. It is with this very firm position that a high ranking European diplomat described, on Wednesday 24 June, the substance of the discussions that the European leaders will have on Thursday 25 June with regard to migration issues.
These words were later softened by other delegations with rather less radical positions - although the delegations predict lengthy and “difficult discussions”, as another diplomatic source from a member state said.
In order to help Italy and Greece address the massive influx of migrants on their shores, the European Commission set out, at the end of May, the content of its European agenda for migration by means of a legislative proposal based on a European Treaty clause (Article 78-3). This consists of setting off an emergency mechanism should there be influxes of illegal migrants (see EUROPE 11322). The proposal asked the member states to share out 40,000 people (24,000 in Italy, and another 16,000 in Greece) who are in need of protection - mainly Syrians and Eritreans - according to a specific distribution key (national GDP, population, reception effort and unemployment rate).
“But it is clear, from what comes out of all the discussions on the issue since April, that this idea of obligatory quotas has never been supported and never will be”, said the European diplomat, who believes “the meeting of home affairs ministers confirmed this prediction”.
On 16 June, other European leaders nevertheless believed that the distinction was far from being as clear and they instead believed that there was a qualified majority around the Commission's proposals (see EUROPE 11336). This difference of view reflects the current opposition between the member states. Eastern European countries, such as Poland (the country of European Council President Donald Tusk), Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary, are deeply opposed to the idea of quotas being imposed. Several sources have acknowledged that these countries are upset “not so much [by] the figures, as the principle” of obligation by the EU in an area that these member states believe is essentially sovereign. In the end, even if a qualified majority exists, a consensus will be sought in order to avoid any forcing.
Some say an agreement is expected, but with many counterparts. The figure of “40,000 will appear in the conclusions” said the national diplomatic source. “But it's what's around it that could change”, the source continued, stating that the European leaders will not, however, have a discussion on the subject of the distribution criteria. This debate will be left to the technical level and possibly to the home affairs ministers, who will meet in Luxembourg on 9 July.
Neither is it certain that the purely voluntary nature of the mechanism will end up being written in black and white in the conclusions that the Presidency of the European Council hopes will be adopted on Thursday evening. “We need to get over this issue of it having a voluntary nature or not, in order to concentrate on a consensual dynamic that calls for the participation of all the member states”, the European diplomatic source stated.
The provisional conclusions of 22 June mention neither the obligatory, nor the voluntary, nature of the scheme (see EUROPE 11341). Another diplomatic source said that the deal that is expected is for the figure of 40,000 people to be accepted, but for member states to be left some leeway to reach this over two years. These modalities will be decided upon at the technical level by the end of July. Some member states nevertheless want additional criteria to come into play, and even for no timetable to be set - with countries like Poland wanting to have more time to be able to host the migrants due to the nature of its infrastructure.
Another group of delegations wants the arrangement that is being developed to remain completely exceptional and not be set to a time limit. “Discussing the permanent nature of such a scheme would make the debates still more difficult”, the national diplomatic source stated.
Hungary. The situation of Hungary could also be addressed at the summit (see other article). On Tuesday, Budapest announced the unilateral suspension of the Dublin Regulation on the grounds that it can no longer manage asylum requests, but it retracted on Wednesday.
Such a decision would imply that other European countries could no longer send migrants back to Hungary if Hungary was their first point of entry into the EU. But it could also mean taking account, under the migrant distribution mechanism, of the geographical situation of this country which is facing migratory pressure from the Balkans.
One thing is certain - consensus within the member states should be very much easier to obtain as regards the measures for identifying migrants, and for their return, their readmission or reintegration. A wide range of measures will be suggested - from establishing filtering centres in the front line countries, to new Frontex abilities to send migrants back home who are not able to claim asylum in the EU.
The European leaders will also ask for the work of EASO (the European Asylum Support Office, based in Malta) to be strengthened on the migrants' countries of origin - the idea being for EASO to distinguish the countries of origin that are “safe” and to which the migrants can be sent back. Some delegations could also raise the issue of the Schengen area and the dangers that the current migration crisis poses to the area of free movement - even if this subject is not expected to appear in the conclusions adopted at the European Council. (Solenn Paulic)