Changes taking place. Every day brings something new in relations between the EU and Russia. But positive or negative? In my view, the positive is prevailing, cooperation exists and is growing. Of course there are difficulties and they will not just go away. However, there are many more reasons for cooperation and the EU has as many reasons as Moscow, and perhaps even more, for wanting rapprochement. For example, in the oil and gas sector, current differences are costing the EU more than Russia.
Fortunately, there are a number of indications that the two parties increasingly want to avoid the accursed round of tit-for-tat sanctions, a course of action that has already had a severe impact on the two economies and one which aggravates rather than relieves discord. At present, negotiations are beginning to take over from automatic retaliation. Discussion is taking place. One example is that Brussels and Moscow are working on an agreement on the resumption of the export from the EU to the Russian market of a number of agricultural products (see EUROPE 11236). This may seem, at first sight, not to be very important. It is, however, significant and, above all, positive for the operators concerned.
Reciprocity and the South Stream issue. The facts prove that the advantage of dialogue is reciprocal. It is untrue that prolonged disagreement hurts Russia more. The proof of that is that the decision by Moscow to cancel the South Stream gas pipeline project seriously inconveniences the EU. South Stream was due to link Russia and Bulgaria under the Black Sea before carrying the gas in two directions: one branch towards Austria, Croatia and Slovenia (passing through Serbia and Hungary) and the other towards Italy, passing through Greece. As a result of differences, Russia has announced this will be replaced by a new pipeline, Turkish Stream, which will pass through Turkey. The EU will, therefore, have to revise the planned supply routes. Commission Vice-President with responsibility for the Energy Union Maros Sefcovic hurried to Moscow on 14 January seeking clarification. There he met Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak and Gazprom Chief Executive Alexei Miller but his visit brought little tangible result, it would seem. Sefcovic does not believe the new Russian project: in his view, it is no more than a bluff, and it is a view he does nothing to conceal (see EUROPE 11237).
Dialogue necessary but step-by-step. The facts prove that dialogue and seeking compromise in cases of disagreement are in the interests of both parties. Clearly each will defend its own interests but as far as possible in a spirit of cooperation. Any such modus vivendi cannot, of course, be improvised and, above all, good will must be forthcoming from both sides. The spirit must, however, be that of cooperation.
I would highlight in this regard the document of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Defence Policy Federica Mogherini arguing for selective and gradually increasing cooperation between the EU and Russia, while making clear that this was a discussion document that could be revised in light of the Russian response and taking account of Moscow's attitude towards what is happening in Ukraine. Deeper relations and especially cooperation must be based on genuine political dialogue between the EU and Russia on international issues. Reaction from the member states to Ms Mogherini's document were not uniformly positive. Much perplexity was raised.
Not forgetting what exists. Instances of concrete cooperation have long been there. I recall the most famous: the two Mistral vessels ordered by Russia from France. In December of last year, French President François Hollande had a one-to-one meeting with Vladimir Putin at Moscow Airport in which he restated the desire for de-escalation in relations: not some progress but results, including on Ukraine. The issue of the still undelivered Mistrals was not even raised at this meeting. When questioned by journalists, the Russian president replied: “There is a contract and I work on the principle that it will be respected. Otherwise, all that we have paid will be reimbursed”. And there we had resolution of a matter that some enjoyed dramatising, with some in the previous European Parliament calling for the most preposterous solutions. In fact, Russian military are already in France learning to operate the Mistrals. Yet another instance of existing cooperation.
The links between Europe and Russia are deeper that one may think. This column will return to them shortly. (FR)