Brussels, 28/08/2014 (Agence Europe) - Federica Mogherini is the hot favourite in the race to take over from Catherine Ashton as High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs, and is expected to bag the post at a canter. This nomination, which is to be confirmed at the European summit on Saturday 30 August, will then mean that a member of the Christian Democrat family (EPP) and from a country of Central or Eastern Europe is likely to be appointed to the position of President of the European Council. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has emerged as the favourite for this post.
Although EUROPE was unable to secure confirmation of the duo as winners, it is seen on all sides as a balanced solution, particularly from the point of view of the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso. And for Mogherini, there is a definite “positive sentiment” for her appointment on Saturday, according to one source.
Although her candidacy caused controversy and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was unable to push it through in mid July, Mogherini, his young foreign minister, was able to benefit from the “negotiations” held over the summer on the distribution of the top European posts. “Discussions on the subject made progress”, a diplomatic source explained on Wednesday, which allowed some of the misgivings over Mogherini's appointment to be put to rest. In July, “some countries were reluctant to support her candidacy without any guarantees of the portfolios”, the source continued. These assurances have clearly been forthcoming in the meantime. Mogherini has always had the backing of Germany and France. Even so, the Italian has already attracted a certain amount of criticism. The Financial Times has described the choice, if confirmed, as “disappointing”, because it would just be the result of bartering and not based on experience. The French newspaper Le Monde also criticised the choice.
On the other hand, a victory for the Italian, which has been presented as a done deal, muddies the waters for the possibility of another Social Democrat woman taking over from Herman Van Rompuy at the helm of the European Council. Denmark's Helle-Thorning Schmidt was one of the front-runners before Poland's Donald Tusk entered the race, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine now seems to be the be-all and end-all in the appointments to the senior European posts. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is reported to have actively canvassed in favour of the Pole, to counterbalance the conciliatory stance towards the Kremlin attributed to Mogherini. According to reports in the FT, he is also believed to be able to count on the support of Paris, but various sources declined to confirm this. In any case, Tusk will have to work on his English and his French, a number of delegations warned.
The stated intention of Van Rompuy, who was accused of having ill-prepared the summit of 16 July, is not to take too long over these nominations, on which, it is hoped, there will be rapid consensus. On Saturday 30 August, the European leaders will also discuss Ukraine, Gaza and Iraq. The Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, will be received in Brussels shortly beforehand by Van Rompuy and Barroso.
Risk of rejection for Juncker Commission
The summit may also provide a forum for further discussions on the Juncker Commission, the composition of which will depend on the identity of the future high representative of the EU for foreign affairs, who will also be one of its vice-presidents. Things could turn out complicated for Juncker, whose attendance at the summit was not confirmed until Thursday 28 August.
Juncker, who was originally to unveil his future team at the summit, may take advantage of the meeting to call the heads of state to order once again over the poor representation of women, or even threaten to overturn some of the candidacies. On this point, a number of options are possible: balancing out the low number of women with the seniority of the posts allocated to them, or asking the member states to put new names forward, as Barroso did in 2009. Not until after the summit, once the decisions made on Saturday have been analysed, will Juncker make his decisions known.
Ahead of that, 30 August is the deadline laid down by Belgium to present its candidate.
As things stand, the former Luxembourg prime minister can count on just four women who have been officially nominated. This is unacceptable to the Liberals, the Social Democrats and the Greens/EFA at the European Parliament. “It is deeply upsetting to note that the governments of the member states have been unable to put forward to Mr Juncker a reasonable number of women to occupy key posts. The Greens/EFA group will not support a Commission with fewer women than the outgoing Commission”, warned Germany's Rebbeca Harms and Philippe Lamberts of Belgium, on behalf of the Greens. They see little consolation in recompense in terms of the nature of the posts allocated. The former commissioner for justice and fundamental rights, Viviane Reding, also called on the member states to have a “bit of courage”. “The European Parliament will have the final say! It could be a no, if a minimum gender balance is not in place”, she warned. (SP)