Brussels, 10/07/2014 (Agence Europe) - There are just five days left for Jean-Claude Juncker, the appointed candidate for the European Commission presidency, to convince as many MEPs at the European Parliament as he can to rally to his cause. MEPs are due to vote on Jucker's appointment at their plenary session in Strasbourg on Tuesday 15 July.
After two days of intense hearings before the Parliament's seven political groups, Juncker (Luxembourg) met all the leaders of these groups on the morning of Thursday 10 July in order to prepare for the home strait and continue with the final negotiations.
The objective of Juncker meeting the group leaders was “to ask Mr Juncker all the questions that were still not very clear after the hearings - as well as about the difficulties that one or other MEP had”, said a source from the S&D Group. It was also “to take stock of these last two days and to begin to see how many votes Juncker can hope for”, added another source from the EPP Group, as the goal was to do as well as Martin Schulz (S&D, Germany) had done on 2 July when he was elected as president of the European Parliament. Schulz garnered 409 votes - and Juncker “will get as many” said an EPP source (although no one dared hope for the possibility of a bigger victory than that of Schulz).
Juncker was grilled by MEPs on 8-9 July and tried to answer their questions on his programme - sometimes adapting his speech according to his audience, but without ever being untrue to himself. He therefore promised the socialists to use the stability and growth pact with flexibility, while reassuring the liberals and conservatives in the EPP Group that the stability and growth pact rules would not be circumvented and that reducing deficits remained a priority. For the liberals in the ALDE Group, Juncker promised to fight on fundamental rights - be it in Hungary (“why do you think Viktor Orban didn't vote for me?”) or in other member states. As regards the UK, he told the conservatives in the ECR Group that he was open to an intelligent solution with London - a solution that takes account of the respective imperatives - but he is still awaiting the “the list of British desiderata”, he told the ALDE Group. He will not, however, change the four fundamental freedoms - including the fundamental freedom of free-movement. And regarding the troika and IMF, Juncker tried to be appealing to the radical left. He also took commitments on the EU's own budget resources.
Nevertheless, Juncker already knows that the European radical left - the GUE/NGL Group - will not support him (see EUROPE 11118), nor the ECR Group (with the British conservatives) which subscribes to some of his commitments but remains adamant about its rejection of the Spitzenkandidaten process.
ALDE negotiating to obtain at least four commissioners. As for support, Juncker can hope for some of the votes of the ALDE Group - which should vote “80-90% in his favour”, said a source. The Spanish from the ALDE Group are among those who do not support him but the reasons for this are “not really understood”. In a press release published on 10 July Guy Verhofstadt, the ALDE Group leader, summed up the general position of being rather attracted by this “convinced European” Jean-Claude Juncker and by his answers during the hearing on 8 July. The ALDE Group is also committed to a three-way deal - along with the EPP and S&D Groups - which in this case is a pro-European coalition within which posts and responsibilities might be shared out. The ALDE Group's support for Juncker therefore seems to be in the bag under this agreement. Verhofstadt is currently working on the Juncker corps “to obtain four liberal commissioners in the next team”, adds this source.
The ALDE Group is making its support for Juncker conditional upon the programme he is due to implement on the Delors 2 package, legislative progress on economic and monetary union, and progress on LGTB rights - which on Tuesday evening Juncker says he is willing to do (even if he is of the opinion that “family law should remain a national issue”).
On the side of the Greens, the predictions are more complicated to make, however. “Jean-Claude Juncker clearly came to see us this morning to ask for our support”, says a source from the Greens/EFA Group, which will make its decision on Monday. Nevertheless, if the Greens/EFA co-leaders - Philippe Lamberts and Rebecca Harms - want to play the game of the big pro-European majority proposed by Juncker, some MEPs - such as Karima Delli (France) - did not hide their disappointment after Juncker's hearing (see EUROPE 11118).
Obtaining as much assurance as possible by Tuesday. For all these groups - as for Juncker - this is a marathon which began on Thursday and which will continue until 15 July. “The timing is much tighter than in 2009 when we asked for the vote on Barroso to be postponed until September”, says a source from the S&D Group. Whether there is a deal or not, some MEPs still remain to be persuaded. “To have promised us a commissioner for economic and monetary affairs is fine, but that's not the end of the story. We also need to see the content.” One issue is certain - the whole S&D Group agrees to support the Spitzenkandidaten procedure, which moreover was proposed by the S&D Group and then picked up by the other groups. “Yet on investment and growth, he did not convince everyone”.
Several doubts have raised their heads in the S&D Group over recent weeks - especially among the ranks of the French MEPs. For Sylvie Guillaume - who refused on Thursday to talk about her own personal vote - “it seems that Mr Juncker is a great European with a very strong awareness of what the EU is, but his answers remained vague”, she told EUROPE. She even finds part of his vision a bit “dated” - especially on the changes to be made to the EU after the europhobic message of the elections. Doubts also persist as to “the role of further drive to be played by the Commission”, Guillaume said, and she believes that Juncker must be convincing on this Commission role not being “business as usual”. He needs to “go further, be more imaginative and be committed to important issues like the economy and social issues”. Juncker must say how “the Commission will respond to the crisis, what he will do for investment”, Guillaume continues, but she says that she is fairly satisfied with “the positive approach on immigration and the resolve to develop legal routes for migration”.
Within his own political party, Juncker (the former head of the Eurogroup) will have to be convincing - even if he is promised wide support. For Constance Le Grip (EPP, France) - who supported Juncker's rival, Michel Barnier, during Juncker's investiture in Dublin - the vote for Juncker will be an “emaphatic yes as far as I'm concerned”, she told EUROPE. This might be an emphatic yes - but it is not without demands. “This is not an anodyne vote and we will be attentive” - especially to Juncker implementing his commitments and to his “reforming imagination”. It is also on Tuesday that the French delegation of the EPP - which is not totally won over for Juncker - will decide on its position for the vote in Strasbourg on 15 July - “because for the moment, not everyone has shared the depth of their thinking”. (SP)