Brussels, 07/07/2014 (Agence Europe) - The latest short-term agricultural forecasts (2014 and 2015), which were published by the European Commission on Monday 7 July, indicate a very good cereals harvest and an increase in the production of meat, milk and dairy products.
The forecasts for 2014 point to a cereals harvest above the EU average for the second year in a row (a record level of cereals exports for the year 2013-2014), according to the Commission's report on the short-term agricultural forecasts. The consolidated figures for the growing year 2013-2014 confirm a cereals harvest of 302 million tonnes (5% above the average of the last five years and up 8% since 2012-2013), with a record level of exports (42 million tonnes). As a result, stock carried over is limited and the stock-use ratio is expected to recover only partially, from 10% to 12%. The harvest for the growing year 2014-2015 is expected to be above average for the second year in a row at 303 million tonnes, according to the Commission's projections.
After two years of limited supply, European meat production is expected to rise again in 2014. The slight economic upturn in the EU may lead to an increase in the domestic consumption of meat, but exports are expected to fall, particularly exports of pork and poultry. The Commission invokes growing uncertainty in certain major commercial partner countries, such as Russia, which has brought in an embargo on pork meat from the EU. The Commission notes a drop of 80% (compared to last year) on supplies of pork to Russia (in the first four months of 2014). “However, high demand in Asia limited the drop in total EU exports to 16%”, the Commission reports.
Supplies of milk in the EU reached a record level in the first four months of 2014 (an increase of 6% was reported, compared to the first four months of 2013). “Contrary to expectations, production in certain EU countries has not decreased, despite the risk of considerably exceeding the quotas. This behaviour was anticipated in countries with fairly high prices, such as Germany, Denmark and Austria. Irish milk production slowed sharply and reached the low of 2012, before rising sharply in April (+22% compared to April 2013)”, the Commission says. However, it adds that “an increase of 7.3% in Polish production was not anticipated”, as prices in that country are among the lowest in the EU. In certain member states which under-use their quotas, “supplies of milk also rose significantly in the first four months of the year”. This is particularly the case in the United Kingdom, France, Estonia and Romania. On the other hand, production in Greece and the Czech Republic “continues to point to a downward trend”, the Commission adds. Milk prices remain high (+15.5% over the first four months of 2014), due to considerable export demand, particularly for powdered milk. In April, a small drop was observed, but prices remain high (€38.35/100 kg). Over the whole of the year, the anticipated increase in milk production was expected to be 2.8%, according to Commission figures. A drop in milk collection is possible in May in France, Germany and the United Kingdom. In 2014, supplies of milk are expected to increase by four million tonnes, to 145.3 million tonnes, the report states.
The report reiterates that, in 2015, the end of milk quotas could lead to an increase in production in the handful of member states which are currently “held back by quotas”. However, developments in prices for milk and dairy products and meteorological conditions will remain the most important driving forces behind milk production, the Commission explains. It goes on to point out that environmental constraints, competition with other sectors over land and the investment strategies of the dairy industry “will play a major role. Consequently, a moderate increase in supplies of milk in the EU is anticipated in 2015, specifically +2.3%”, the Commission concludes. (LC)