Brussels, 25/11/2013 (Agence Europe) - Honour has been saved, the objective of the global climate agreement in 2015 lives on, but the climate is not likely to be saved by the scant results of the 19th UN climate conference of Warsaw (COP 19 - 11-22 November initially). Decried by the developing countries, NGOs and many observers, it has however been welcomed by the European Union, for want of anything better. In other words, failure has been narrowly avoided.
Progress on procedures - regarding losses and damage suffered by the developing countries, emissions from deforestation and the transparency rules - plus a timetable for a global climate agreement in Paris in 2015 (COP 21) ended up saving the day. All of the countries of the world will have just over a year, in other words between now and the first quarter of 2015, to table their future detailed contributions - voluntary contributions, not binding commitments, and with no mention of the principle of equity - to reduce or limit their greenhouse gas emissions to keep the average increase in temperatures on the surface of the planet below 2°C. This is very little and a long way below what the EU had hoped for, but it is a relief that the UN negotiation process is still on track. The failure to which COP 19 appeared to be heading on its presumed closing day (see EUROPE 10969) was ultimately staved off by an a minima agreement reached in the morning of Sunday 24 November, after the negotiators had stretched talks out for the whole of Saturday night. For long-term funding to fight climate change, the developing countries will have to wait to see how the developed countries plan to find the $100 billion a year by 2020.
“The Warsaw climate conference showed us how difficult it will be to achieve an ambitious result in Paris. But the final hours also showed us that we are capable of moving forward. The EU wanted a stage-by-stage approach and that has been agreed upon as the way forward: all of the countries must contribute to future reduction efforts and, from now on, all countries must work to table their contribution in plenty of time ahead of the Paris conference and before the first quarter of 2015 for those which are prepared to do so”, said Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action.
Valentinas Mazuronis, president-in-exercise of the Environment Council, who negotiated hand-in-hand on behalf of all member states of the EU, pointed out that “we went to Warsaw fully aware that this 'interim' conference to prepare for the decisive meeting of Paris in 2015 would be difficult, and we were under no illusions that we would resolve all of the problems here. Although the Warsaw Conference did not establish the legal form of the commitments, each country has to do its 'homework', as the European Union will do as well, and it is now preparing its commitments for a period up to 2030”. He went on to stress that the future commitments and timetable concern “all countries, not just the developed countries, as provided for by the Kyoto Protocol in force up to now”.
The MEP Matthias Groote (S&D, Germany), who led the delegation of the European Parliament in Warsaw, gave a cautious welcome to this bare minimum agreement. “We welcome the fact that this conference has kept in place the original objective of the Durban platform, in other words a global agreement involving all parties in a legally binding joint agreement in 2015. On the road to Paris, Warsaw has succeeded in plugging the gap between the developing countries and the developed countries, but at the price of somewhat vague wording and timetable, whereas we need urgent and clear commitments”.
Suffice it to say that the climate summit of the heads of state to be held in September of next year by invitation of the Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, and the climate conference of Lima (COP 20) in 2014, will have their work cut out to guarantee that an ambitious agreement is reached in Paris. For this reason, Ban Ki-moon has called on all parties actively to prepare for the global summit to be held on 23 September.
Losses and damage. The parties have agreed to establish a mechanism to promote ways of tackling the losses and damage suffered by the developing countries which are vulnerable to climate change, but no mention was made of a compensation mechanism. The “international mechanism of Warsaw” will reinforce action and support, including technological and financial support, improve knowledge and reinforce coordination, but the precise functioning of this mechanism has not been clarified.
Protection of the forests. An agreement has been reached on the entire raft of decisions establishing the methodological framework to reduce emissions from deforestation and the degradation of forests in the developing countries (REDD + programme). Two member states of the EU (Germany and the UK), Norway and the United States agreed to fund, to the tune of US$280 million, the fund's BioCarbon initiative for sustainable forest landscapes.
Funding. The developed countries will continue to mobilise public money at levels in excess of $30 billion in immediate aid for 2010-2012. Progress has been made to get the new Green Fund for the climate up and running. A number of member states have announced new indicative contributions for 2014, and others will do so once the fund is operational.
Transparency rules. A decision was made making a new “international consultation and analysis” system operational. Under this system, inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and other information submitted by the developing countries will be examined by a team of technical experts.
“Japan and Canada have reduced their targets. Australia, the United States and the EU have declined to state how they will increase their climate funding to help the poorest countries to adapt and reduce their emissions. The United States, Australia, Japan, Canada, China, India, Brazil and others have pushed to give their green light to a new climate agreement which will allow the countries to opt for low reduction objectives”, lamented development NGO Oxfam.
BusinessEurope has expressed concern at the scant results. Pointing out that the EU is responsible for just 11% of overall emissions and that European industry has already taken its responsibilities to cut its emissions, the organisation argues that a long-term global agreement is essential. BusinessEurope calls on the EU to set itself a single objective for 2030, but to avoid the pitfall of a unilateral approach by means of legislation before the other parties have made any clear commitments. (AN/transl.fl)