Brussels, 09/07/2013 (Agence Europe) - Nearly 850 government experts from Euro-Mediterranean civil society answered questions put to them on the future of the region.
The EU is seen as having great potential clout and it is believed cooperation with the EU can contribute to the democratisation of the southern Mediterranean countries. According to those who put the study together - under the aegis of the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), which is jointly funded by the EU - experts say the EU can play an active role. Nonetheless, they are sceptical as to the EU's capacity to resolve conflicts and they consider the United States and Saudi Arabia have the most influence in a region where they expect Islamic parties to have an increasing presence. This opinion is apparently more that of European experts than of the southern rim countries. They believe that, in the economic field, the findings of the study suggest a foreseeable stronger role for the Gulf countries and China and a more important role for the United States as an economic partner. On the other hand, strengthening regional integration institutions in the Arab countries is considered improbable.
The new situation in Egypt will have an impact on the region as a whole. It will be a determining factor in the geopolitical definition of the southern and eastern Mediterranean, experts say. Taking country by country, they consider Tunisia has the greatest chance of reaching sustainable democracy, followed by Lebanon and Morocco. Their most pessimistic forecasts are for Syria and Libya.
According to medium- and long-term scenarios there is risk of conflict. This is most likely to result from water scarcity and forced migration. Demographic pressure and unemployment in the Mediterranean partner countries could also create social tension. Predictions also include regression in the role of women. (FB/transl.jl)