Taking distance or moving into active political life? What will be the repercussions for the EU of Mario Monti's decision to resign from the position of prime minister in his country? A distinction should be made between the immediate repercussions - starting from the European Council at the end of this week - and the longer term repercussions, which will depend on the decisions that Monti himself takes with regard to his personal political future.
Observers hold differing opinions. Some think that the repercussions will be negative because Mr Monti's role has been crucial in re-establishing European confidence in his country as part of the eurozone - and this role will disappear or remain in up in the air. Other observers predict, on the contrary, that Mr Monti will eventually move beyond the stage of head of a “technical” government to put himself forward as a candidate in the national elections that are planned for the month of February. In this case, if the Italian people appoint him, he will be able to complete and bring to fruition the reforms that are under way at national level, and at the same time he will be able to consolidate and strengthen his country's participation in the management and consolidation of the eurozone.
Yet a period of uncertainty is inevitable, and this uncertainty will reverberate at the European level.
Why? Because Mr Berlusconi has announced that he is a candidate (contrary to what he had first planned) and that he will maintain - especially with regard to management of the euro - an attitude opposed to that of Mr Monti. Angelino Alfano, the secretary of Mr Berlusconi's party, stated that parliamentary support for the current “technical” government was over, adding some very harsh criticism of Mr Monti's political action. Monti then informed the president of the republic, Giorgio Napolitano, of his irrevocable decision to hand in his resignation, which will become effective before Christmas or immediately after. The next instalment of events will then be automatic - elections next February.
An Italian referendum on Europe? It remains to be seen whether Mario Monti, no longer being linked to the limits of the technical government - without personal parliamentary support - decides to launch himself into active political life. He will have to make up his mind pretty quickly because in Brussels management of the euro can't be put on hold. His participation in the national elections presupposes the existence of an organised political movement, as well as alliances with other political parties.
The situation is urgent because the eurozone needs to know if Italy supports Mr Monti's financial and economic policy, in harmony with the common efforts of the eurozone. In practice, February's elections in Italy should become a sort of Italian referendum on Europe. It would become clear if the eurozone can count on an Italy that participates actively in the European efforts for political and economic recovery, and that considers this policy as a start to the future.
However, Mr Monti has not yet given his opinion. Will he make the big leap? On Monday he was due in Oslo to participate in the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Europe. At the end of the week he will take part in the European Council which is preparing the future. Europe needs his answer and to know the Italian position. (FR/transl.fl)
= = = = = = = = = = = =