Brussels, 05/10/2012 (Agence Europe) - A high level conference on the risks of natural disasters in the Mediterranean will be held in Brussels on 8 November at Centre Borschette, organised by the PPRD South Team (Programme for the Prevention Preparedness and Response to Natural and Man-Made Disasters). The consortium, which groups nearly all the civil protection services of the Mediterranean rim countries, based at the Italian centre for civil protection in Rome, was launched in 2008 and benefits from EU financial support.
PPRD South Team wishes to underline the magnitude of potential risks in the region. Referring to an ongoing OECD study, to which it has added extra information, it affirms that over 14 Mediterranean port towns with over one million inhabitants are increasingly exposed to risks such as flooding due to storm waves, global warming and the rising sea level, as well as subsidence of the soil. Potential risks are currently estimated at over €30 billion, which could increase to around €40 billion in 2070.
The consortium considers that, by 2070, the total population exposed to such risks could more than triple to 5 million, and this increase would come in addition to the combined effects of climate change (rise in sea level and storms), subsidence (collapse of the surface of the Earth's crust), and urbanisation.
The risk may be exacerbated by insufficient or uncontrolled urban planning which often brings too many people to live in increasingly vulnerable areas. The consortium points out that over 1.5 million people living in Mediterranean port towns are exposed to between one and 100 possible coastal floods per year. In terms of population exposed, the first six Mediterranean towns are: Alexandria (by far the most exposed with 1.3 million residents at risk), Istanbul, Benghazi, Casablanca, Izmir and Algiers.
PPRD South Team also refers to another report, State of Arab Cities 2012, by UN Habitat, which affirms that the extreme climate conditions and the rising sea level caused by climate change are now major challenges for the towns of the southern and eastern Mediterranean. The Middle East and North Africa will become increasingly hot and dry by the end of the century. Forward-looking models predict that, by 2050, Mashreq will have hotter summers by 2.5° to 3.7°C, and warmer winters by 2.0°C to 3.1°C. In the Maghreb, climate change will displace western winds causing, by 2030, an average 12% reduction in annual rainfall. This could cost the countries from 1%-7% of their GDP. By way of example, the report points out, Jordan could lose 1-2% of its GDP, Lebanon 2%-5%, the Occupied Palestinian Territories 2%-5%, and Syria 4%-7%. (FB/transl.jl)