World trade stagnates in 2011 (WTO). World trade in goods last year increased slightly by 5%, following an exceptional rise of +13.8% in 2010, according to preliminary estimates by the World Trade Organisation (WTO). In addition to economic stagnation in Europe we also have had energy price hikes, revolutions in the Arab world and massive natural disasters. Nonetheless, developed countries have achieved an unexpectedly stronger than predicted increase in export levels of 4.7%, thanks to a competitive US performance brought about by the low value of the dollar. Repercussions from the tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear plant disaster, which plunged Japan into recession, had an impact on the whole region but did not affect this growth. Emerging countries, however, only increased their sales abroad by 5.4%. Apart from China, exports from South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong only slightly increased (+6%). Floods in Thailand caused exports from this country to fall sharply by 8 .5% in the last quarter of 2011. In Africa, significant cuts in oil exports from Libya (-75%) during the raids by Western countries against Colonel Gaddafi explain the 8.3% fall in exports from this continent. The Arab Spring revolutions also significantly disturbed trade. Exports in services, particularly tourism, fell by 20% in Tunisia and Egypt. Among all the different countries in the world, India, China and the US experienced the highest rates of growth in their exports last year with respective rises of +16.1%, +9.2% and +7.2%. On the other hand, the sharpest falls were registered in the Philippines (-14.3%), Africa (-8.3%) and Japan (-0.5%). In addition to the extremely volatile results of 2011, the WTO points out that the prevailing tendency is still one that remains close to stagnation. The global economy and trade remain fragile and there will be no improvement in 2012. The WTO forecasts that 2012 will be even worse with growth in world trade of +3.7%, well below the 1990-2008 average of +6%. Slight improvement, to +5.6%, is forecast for 2013 if the euro zone is not subject to further turbulence and prices in raw materials do not skyrocket. Elsewhere, developments in the volume of world trade remains below the pre-crisis expansionary trend of 2008-2009. The gap it is expected to grow so long as the rate of trade expansion continues to fall short of earlier levels, says the WTO. This process is expected to last for a number of years. (IL/transl.fl)