Libyan tyrant's pan-African goal. The results of the free elections in three countries involved in the Arab Spring raised a number of questions and concerns, which this column discussed last week (EUROPE 10487and 10488). They also created an avalanche of different responses which often expressed worry and concern. Before I attempt to outline an overall assessment, I think it would be useful to indicate a number of additional considerations on this, so that the factual picture that is drawn is as comprehensive as possible.
The first aspect concerns Black Africa. It is well-known that Colonel Gaddafi, obsessed by his hunger for power and revenge, claimed that he both acted and spoke on behalf of the whole of Africa. With this goal in his sights, he provided political and financial support to African Union structures and other similar bodies. It is now up to the countries concerned to define the future for these bodies in Addis Ababa or elsewhere. Nonetheless, ongoing developments have already had immediate and sometimes contradictory repercussions.
Mali considers “Arab Spring is our winter”. In my opinion, Mr Gaddafi behaved in a way that was ignoble in two different ways towards Black Africa: (a) nationals from Black Africa largely made up his personal militia and they had ultimately no other choice but to be considered as mercenaries and fight on his behalf until death; (b) he transformed black women and children into his political hostages and compelled them to leave Libya for Italy in conditions that were deliberately perilous, in the hope that they would be shipwrecked, which would create problems for the authorities in Rome, upon which he wished to exact vengeance. All this is in the past but the repercussions are still being felt today. For example, the president of Mali, Amadou Toumani Touré, has declared “the Arab Spring is our winter” and has pointed out that Libya is “a shop for purchasing arms and is a powderkeg”. He has also indicated that “organised armies with armoured vehicles and heavy artillery” have arrived in the Sahel-Sahara zone. He has asserted that his country has been taken hostage by networks that kidnap foreigners and traffic weapons, ammunition and drugs.
I am not aware of all of the Malian authorities' or pan-African groups' intentions but the problem of “Black Africa” exists. It is also common knowledge that NATO and other organisations are concerned about the large quantities of arms and munitions in Libya, even though they do not know who is controlling them and whether they are being used.
Vigilance and clarity on the financial question. The financial aspect of EU support for the Arab Spring is both complex and unclear, and we need to focus on the essential factors. The situations are far from being the same. Tunisia only needs swift and substantial European support, whilst Libya has, and will continue to have, what it needs in this domain. Egypt is somewhere between the two.
The Libyan case is in this respect the most simple of the three examples. This country can and will be able to gradually unblock a large part of the billions of dollars, euros and other currencies that the Colonel and his family had in the US, Switzerland and elsewhere. They will also soon be able to benefit from the flow of gas and oil exports, which will guarantee new and very substantial revenues. Customers are already queuing up and knocking on the door. In a few cases, the unblocking of this money (the task is being conferred upon different banking organisations) might drag on for a while, with the banks explaining that in one or other operation has not succeeded. In some cases, the Libyan authorities themselves are not in too much of a hurry because while waiting, deposits are bearing fruit and the longer the wait, the more these deposits grow. The European Parliament has nothing to worry about - the EU budget has a lot more problems than Libya's.
Egypt has a number of budgetary problems but the wealth accumulated by the previous oppressive regime proves that the financial situation of the country is far from being catastrophic. It will simply be necessary to ensure that the assets that were stolen by the previous tyrant end up in the country's coffers. It also appears likely that military spending will be largely covered by the US. If the former arrangements between Egypt and Israel are respected, the US will undoubtedly confirm its support for the Egyptian army.
Tunisia, however, does need Community support and it will receive this in specific areas. Any negative domestic political developments, however, will prove to be an obstacle because the EU will not be able to finance any possible distortions to freedom and democracy. Last week I quoted Guy Verhofstadt, who underlined that equality between men and women would be a prerequisite for unconditional European support for the next Tunisian government.
Following these considerations on the sensitive aspects, I will attempt to draw a few conclusions tomorrow. (FR/transl.fl)