Brussels, 23/10/2009 (Agence Europe) - So near yet so far. With a few weeks before the Copenhagen conference, time is running out and it is now up to the heads of state to agree on an EU27 position on internationally financing the fight against climate change. At the end of the ECOFIN Council (Tuesday 20 October, EUROPE 10002), much regret was expressed about the absence of visible progress on obtaining an agreement but, equally, optimism was expressed about the possibility of obtaining an agreement at the European Council (29-30 October). The majority considered that the ingredients for an agreement were present and this was now clear. With conclusions adopted since then by the ministers for the environment (EUROPE 10003), the scene is set and everyone believes failure will be avoided at the summit. The terms on the financial chapter in the negotiations are now known but it remains to be seen to what extent EU leaders will execute them when everything depends on an overall agreement.
Although draft conclusions updated at the ECOFIN Council meeting suggested several options, finance ministers stalled on the delicate question of distributing the EU contribution between member states. This question has been holding them up for several months and everyone appears to be lending a deaf ear during the discussions.
On Tuesday, nine countries from Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and the Czech Republic) wanted the wealth of each member state to be taken into account. They wanted to know whether it would be possible for less well-off countries to adjust, by way of a re-distribution key, the burden of the responsibility for emissions according to their contributory capacity. By enabling them to reduce their contributions, this criterion would therefore reflect the Gross National Income (GNI) of these countries in the EU (rather than the share of their financial commitments in EU external policies in which the moderate level of their contribution would be deemed even higher). These countries consider that by working out such a mechanism before the Copenhagen meeting, it would therefore be possible to evaluate the EU's contribution.
Although the principle of compensation is not opposed, several other member states (Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, in particular) have so far not wished to include precise modalities on compensation into a text. This is because they think it would be better to preserve a certain level of coherence between the distribution key selected at an international level and that applied by the EU and therefore not be too precise about the internal mechanism at this stage. Diplomats note that some want greater clarity while others want to keep a negotiating tactic, which means positions are not yet set in stone. These diplomats are hoping that a convincing message will be sent out to the rest of the world.
This is also the case for the proposal from the Nine, which aims to include a formula in the conclusions that calls for fast start international financing (which would be paid out in 2010-12) to be done voluntarily. This attempt was opposed by the great majority of member states and is not expected to be achieved in this way. Those against it said that it was “unimaginable” and even some of the states calling for it said that the initiative would be a “secondary issue”. For some of the countries that are still being drip-fed (Latvia, above all), it is still a politically sensitive question and they consider that a modification will be required sooner or later.
In term of figures, the Commission's proposed bands are currently being calculated. According to the Commission, €100bn a year will be necessary by 2020 to meet the needs of developing countries (EUROPE 9974). These countries themselves will finance part of this; another part will be financed by the international carbons market and the remainder by international public funding.
In the medium term, the global level of public support by industrialised countries is calculated at between €22bn and €50bn annually (between €9-13bn from 2013 - the amount will increase gradually until this date). The Commission therefore believes that the EU's share could be around €2-15bn (the European Parliament's environment committee is asking for at least €35bn). International public financing will also be needed to cover the needs of developing countries while waiting for the entry into force of the hoped for Copenhagen Agreement (1 January 2013). This fast start financing may require €5-7bn a year, of which the EU would pay an appropriate share. The EU endorses the European Commission's estimate that the total net incremental costs of mitigation and adaptation in developing countries could amount to around €100 billion annually by 2020, to be met through a combination of their own efforts, the international carbon market and international public finance. The EU considers that the overall level of the international public support required could lie in the range of €22 to 50 billion per year by 2020, subject to a fair burden sharing at the global level in line with the distribution key agreed by Parties, a government arrangement and delivery towards ambitious Low Carbon Development Strategies/Low Carbon Growth Plans. (A.B./transl.rh)