Developing countries catching up with developed counterparts. - According to independent management consultants, Convictions Asset Management, the volume of vehicles sold in countries experiencing strong growth (developing countries) caught up with the volume sold in developed countries for the first time ever at the end of 2010. The speed with which this phenomenon is taking place is the most striking part of this observation. In 2005, twice as many vehicles were being sold on the markets of developed countries (US, Western Europe and Japan) as in developing countries. At the beginning of 2010, the division between the two zones was still around 20%. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA), the European Union is a declining market: new car registrations fell by 5.5% in EU member states in 2010 to below the level for 1998. Demand also fell in the majority of large countries since the ending of government fleet renewal schemes. Germany, the biggest market on the continent, registered a 23.4% fall in car registrations in 2010, despite a 6.9% rise in December. In 2010, Italy experienced a significant 9.2% decline. In France, where the scrapping premium was maintained until the end of the year, registrations only fell 2.2% over a 12-month period. Whereas all the markets in developed countries are in need of revival, developing countries are experiencing full growth. China is part of this trend and is the biggest car market in the world. It is expected to remain so in 2011, even though a rebound in sales is expected this year in the US. Following the 11% rise in sales last year (11.6 million vehicles sold), business in this sector is expected to climb upwards but pre-crisis levels are not expected. In China, registrations again leapt upwards by 33% in 2010, to a total of 13.8 million units sold. This figure does not include buses and lorries. The 2011 forecasts are more moderate and the Chinese Manufacturers Association is counting on growth levels of between 10 and 15%. Large cities like Peking are currently introducing measures to limit the expansion of the number of cars on the road and secondary cities are expected to be the future drivers of growth in this area. The other emerging countries in the BRIC group (Brazil, Russia, India and China) were also looking healthy. In Brazil, the automobile market increased by 11% and reached new records. In India, this market experienced a year on rise of 32%. Russia is the only emerging major country to have experienced a sharp fall during the economic crisis (-50% in 2009) but has experienced a good recovery over recent months with a 30% rise in new car orders, 1.9 million new units. The Association of European Businesses (AEB) is forecasting a rise of 17% and Russia is expected to come close to obtaining a pre-crisis sales volume record of 2.9 million vehicles. (I.L./transl.fl)