Brussels, 23/09/2009 (Agence Europe) - Following his re-appointment as President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso has begun the task of sounding out the wishes, suggestions and calls from the 26 governments as he starts to build his new team. At this point, contact is only informal since, until it is certain which treaty, Nice or Lisbon, will apply when it comes to form the new Commission, the President will not know how many Commissioners (and, therefore, their nationalities) he will have. The Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty on 2 October will, then, be a “deciding factor” it is felt at the Commission. Work on building the new Commission will then be kicked off by the European Council of 29-30 October. Leaders will also have to agree to extending the first Barroso Commission by two or three months. If the Nice Treaty remains the legal basis (either because of “no” vote in the Irish referendum or because there is no certainty that either the Czech Republic and/or Poland will ratify the new treaty speedily), they will have to decide which country/countries will not have a Commissioner. If, on the other hand, the way is clear by the end of October for the Lisbon Treaty to come into force (in December or at the start of January 2010), leaders will be able to designate the new President of the European Council and propose a High Representative for Foreign Policy.
At this point, all eyes are fixed on the Irish referendum since it is only after an Irish vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty that national governments will be able officially to begin proposing their candidate Commissioners to Barroso.
At least eight of the 27 current Commissioners are certain to be returned by their respective governments: Antonio Tajani (Italy), Janez Potocnik (Slovenia, Siim Kallas (Estonia), Viviane Reding (Luxembourg), Olli Rehn (Finland)¸ Karel De Gucht (Belgium), Andris Piebalgs (Latvia) and Algirdas Semeta (Lithuania). To these can be added three other Commissioners currently in post, whose return is virtually assured. The first is Joaquin Almunia (Spain). Prime Minister Zapatero has said that he was “very happy” with his Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, but no formal decision has so far been taken. Madrid, it has been suggested, would like to see Almunia move to Internal Market, a portfolio that France, too, would like. The second is current Health Commissioner Andrioulla Vassiliou (Cyprus), who would like to return. Though no decision has yet been taken by Nicosia, it would seem very likely that she will be re-appointed. Thirdly, there is Catherine Ashton (UK) on whose fate the Brown government has yet to decide. It would seem very likely that the current Trade Commissioner will remain in Brussels for a further term of office. She has said several times that she would like, if possible, to keep the same portfolio.
The situation in the other member states is as follows:
France. It is generally considered that Michel Barnier will return to the Commission (he has already served, from 1999 to 2004) succeeding Jacques Barrot. Paris would like an economic portfolio, such as Competition, Internal Market or Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Germany. Everything will depend on the general elections on 27 September. After two successive terms of office for Social Democrat Günter Verheugen, the post is expected once again to fall to the Christian Democrats of the CDU - even if the grand coalition with the SPD continues in power. Some observers have not ruled out the possibility that current foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Social Democrat candidate for Chancellor) may be proposed by Germany (even by a possible government in which there is no place for the SPD), for the post of EU High Representative for the Foreign Policy and Commission Vice-President on condition of course, that the Lisbon Treaty comes into effect. Even if there is little possibility of this post being given to a “large” country, Steinmeier's chances have increased after the Socialist group in the European Parliament called on this post to be allocated to a Socialist.
Denmark. The Danish government will await the outcome of the Irish referendum before deciding on who will succeed Mariann Fischer Boel who will leave the Commission. Three women are in the running: current Climate and Energy Minister Connie Hedegaard (whose main drawback would seem to be that she belongs to the Conservative Party, the “little” party in the government collation, when the Liberal party of Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen could claim the post of European Commissioner), current Development Minister Ulla Tornaes, and Eva Kjer Hansen, current Agriculture Minister, both of whom belong to the Prime Minister's party.
Austria. The grand governing coalition (made up of ÖVP Conservative and SPÖ Social Democrats) will decide on who is to be the next Commissioner towards the end of October or even at the start of November, said Chancellor Werner Faymann on the sidelines of the informal European Council last week. The portfolios that Vienna would most like to have are Agriculture, Environment, Internal Security and Economy. The post will go to the ÖVP, under the terms of a governmental agreement. Best placed candidates are Wilhelm Molterer (former Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister) and current Research Minister Johannes Hahn. A third heavyweight candidate joined this list at the weekend: Benita Ferrero-Waldner. Since her withdrawal from the contest to head up UNESCO (see EUROPE 9982), current Austrian Commissioner for External Relations Waldner has become available anew for a term of office at the Commission, or why not even for the post of High Representative/Vice-President?
Ireland. The government will wait until the referendum of 2 October before deciding who will take over from Charlie McCreevy, who will leave Brussels. A number of well-known figures are believed to be in contention, starting with the current European Affairs Minister, Dick Roche, who has made no secret of his ambitions. Pat Cox, the former President of the European Parliament, is also interested. Another "heavyweight" who would not object to joining the Commission is, according to the Irish Times, the former Prime Minister John Bruton, who is currently the Commission's representative in Washington. The former Minister Maire Geoghegan-Quinn has also been named as a possible candidate.
Sweden. The government is planning to take a decision on a successor to Margot Wallström in early October. There are three formidable candidates: the current Foreign Minister, Carl Bildt (former Prime Minister and President-in-exercise of the Council), Cecilia Malmström (currently European Affairs Minister and former Member of the European Parliament) and Gunilla Carlsson (currently Minister for Development Cooperation). Mr Bildt is believed to be a serious candidate for the post of High Representative/Vice-President of the Commission, but could also be in contention for another major portfolio.
Romania. The two parties of the coalition government (the Liberals and the Social Democrats) are believed to have agreed on the appointment of the current Agriculture Minister, Dacian Ciolos, to take over from Leonard Orban. Bucharest has its eye on the Agriculture portfolio in the Barroso Commission II and has already won the support of France. Should Romania fail to get Agriculture, the government may put a different candidate forward, according to speculation in the Romanian press. In this event, the alternative portfolios coveted by Bucharest are believed to Regional Policy, Research or Enlargement.
Greece. Stavros Dimas, the current Commissioner for the Environment, is said to wish to extend his term of office at the Commission (preferably by taking charge of the new "Climate" portfolio, which Mr Barroso has pledged to create), but everything will depend on the results of the early legislative elections, to be held on 4 October. At this moment in time, surveys points to PASOK winning the election, whereas Dimas is a member of the Nea Dimokratía party of the current Prime Minister, Kostas Karamanlis.
Poland. Janusz Lewandowski, MEP and member of the Civic Platform of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, is believed to be the government's candidate to take over from Pawel Sameki (who himself succeeded Danuta Hübner shortly before the European elections of last June). Poland is believed to be targeting a "major" economic portfolio in the Barroso II Commission.
Bulgaria. The government will announce the successor to Meglena Kuneva in the post of Bulgarian Commissioner after the Irish referendum. Sofia hopes to be granted the Regional Policy portfolio.
Czech Republic. Vladimir Spidla, currently Commissioner for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities, is hoping to renew his post at the Commission, but no decision has yet been taken in Prague. It is believed that other candidates are in contention.
Slovakia. Jan Figel will leave the Commission on 30 September to return to the Slovakian political scene as new President of the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH). His successor, Slovakia's current Permanent Representative to the EU, Maros Sefkovic, will take up office on 1 October in the Barroso I Commission, and is likely to remain in office for the next five years.
Netherlands. Cees Veerman, former Agriculture Minister, is hotly tipped to take over from Neelie Kroes, who will be leaving the Commission, but no decision has yet been made.
Hungary. Laszlo Kovas, currently the Commissioner for Taxation, is available for a second term in office, but the Hungarian government has not yet made any announcements. The situation is increasingly uncertain as early legislative elections could take place before the end of the year (instead of April 2010).
Malta. Joe Borg, currently the Commissioner for Fisheries, is available for another term in office, but it is believed that there are a number of other candidates in contention. The Maltese government is set to make a decision in the very near future. (H.B./trans.fl)