Brussels, 17/04/2009 (Agence Europe) - The communications agency Burson-Marsteller has published on the internet forecasts of the outcome of the upcoming European elections. The three political experts who devised the statistical model suggest that the EPP would remain the biggest party at the European Parliament with 249 seats. In relative terms (the percentage of seats compared with the total number of seats, down from 785 in 2004 to 736 in 2009), this would mean a 3 percent fall on the current parliament (37% rather than 40%). The Socialists (PES) would gain a percentage point, winning 209 seats, and the Liberals (ALDE) would win around 12% (87 seats). They predict that a new political group comprising the UK Tories (who have left the EPP-ED and who hold 27 seats in the current EP), Polish Conservatives and the Czech Republic's ODS, would surprise people by becoming the fourth biggest party with 56 seats.
German Christian Democrat Werner Langen, who has expressed regret at the loss of the British Tories from the EPP-ED, said that the results of the poll were wrong because the methodology was too lax.
The authors of the poll say that José Manuel Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as the president of the European Commission as long as the ALDE Liberals form an alliance with the EPP-ED. An alternative scenario, however, would see a “progressive coalition” of Liberals, Socialists, Greens and the radical left vetoing his re-election. The forecasts (also available for each member state individually) are updated every week and can be found online at http://www.predict09.eu . (Y.P./transl.fl)