Brussels, 09/12/2008 (Agence Europe) - On Tuesday 9 December, EU Regional Policy Commissioner Danuta Hubner presented the Regions 2020 report assessing future challenges for EU regions, which will feed into the current debate on the future of European regional policy.
The research aimed to measure the vulnerability of EU regions in relation to four big challenges and to assess the disparities among the regions in this connection, explained Danuta Hubner at a press conference.
Globalisation. Most regions situated in the southern and eastern parts of the EU (Latvia, eastern Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal) appear to be much more exposed to the challenge of globalisation than regions in the north-west. This vulnerability is predominantly due to the relatively large share of low value-added activities in these regions and weaknesses in workforce qualifications.
Demographic change. The population of the EU is forecast to decrease, with a rise in the proportion of elderly people due largely to low birth rates and longer life expectancy. The number of 15 to 64 year olds may fall by 48 million by 2050 but the number of over 65s may rise by 58 million. From 2017 onwards, a shrinking workforce will also reduce overall employment. Only a handful of member states (like Ireland, Malta and Cyprus) appear to be in a relatively favourable position with regard to demographic challenges. Around one third of European regions are projected to experience population decline in the period 2005-2020. Most of them are located in central Europe, eastern Germany, southern Italy and northern Spain. The highest proportions of old people are likely to be in eastern Germany, north-west Spain, Italy and some parts of Finland. In central and eastern Europe, the impacts of ageing will be delayed due to their younger population and lower life expectancy.
Climate change. More than a third of the EU population (a total of 170 million people) live in the regions most affected by climate change. Regions subject to the highest pressure are generally located in the south and east of Europe, the whole of Spain, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta and Hungary, as well as most of Romania and southern parts of France.
The energy challenge. Europe is becoming increasingly dependent on imported fossil fuels. Under the “business as usual” scenario, the EU's energy import dependence will increase from 53% of total EU energy consumption in 2005 to 67% in 2030. Reliance on imports of gas is expected to increase from 58% to 84% by 2030, and on imports of oil from 82% to 95%.
Peripheral regions located mainly in eastern and southern member states appear particularly vulnerable. About a third of the EU population lives in such areas. Polish regions have a lower security of supply risk, but the coal base leaves a negative carbon footprint. Irish regions combine a pattern of higher security of supply risks with a low level of environmental sustainability and high household consumption.
Centrally located regions, in Belgium and Germany for instance, are in the middle ground due to high energy efficiency but high household consumption and relatively low environmental sustainability. A third of the EU population lives in these regions.
A third of the EU population lives in the least challenged regions (the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Finland, France and Sweden).
The report concludes a map of the intensely vulnerable regions. Most of the regions that are very vulnerable to at least three challenges at any one time are in southern Europe and on the eastern and central coastal areas. There regions facing the fewest challenges are closer to the geographical heart of the EU, southern Spain, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Lithuania. (L.C./ transl.fl)