Blocked developments. We shall have to wait till the December European Council to have a clearer idea about the future of the Lisbon Treaty. But we shan't have to wait to see the damage caused by its delayed entry into force (assuming that it's not dying a slow death). Different essential aspects of European construction have been put on hold, or risk being so. A providential timetable for the rotation of the European Council Presidency allowed effective European action to be brokered to halt the Georgia-Russia conflict, but Mr Landaburu last week confirmed that prolonging the half-yearly system for rotation of the EU Presidency would bring about a permanent lack of EU effectiveness in foreign policy. Many other inadequacies are to be called into question. Only the new treaty will make the gradual definition of a common energy policy possible. The encouraging and skilful formulas set out in the new treaty to bring about a Europe of Defence between countries that so wish are blocked, entailing political and psychological repercussions that can already be felt - not forgetting that the Lisbon Treaty would make the Charter of Fundamental Rights a legal and binding text (except for Poland and the United Kingdom that have requested derogation from this). Should I go on? The president of the Socialist Group at the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, has announced that, if the next European elections take place according to the regime embodied in the Treaty of Nice, his group will request an inter-institutional agreement stipulating that any EU legislative initiative should be subject to a social impact assessment, as the Treaty of Nice does not offer the same social guarantees as the Lisbon Treaty.
Euro-sceptics make the most of it. In the meantime, political forces that support a Poor Man's Europe are making the most of this blocking. With public opinions discouraged and unsettled, they feel the wind is blowing in the direction of reactivating an intergovernmental Europe, which is perfectly legitimate especially when they do so openly and in a democratic manner, like the UK's Conservative Party. David Cameron had already announced that, if his party wins the next national elections and if, when that happens, the Lisbon Treaty is not yet in force, he will organise a referendum. William Hague, the UK's Shadow Foreign Minister, has added that, in the event of a referendum, his party will call for a “no” vote, and if by chance the Lisbon Treaty has entered into application in the meantime, his party will renegotiate the terms of his country's participation to the EU.
In addition to the legal and other problems of such a development, Andrew Duff, British MEP, warned his fellow citizens against the danger of distancing their country from the European reality (see our bulletin No 9753). But, if such were the will of the British people, pro-Europeans would take note of it. In such an assumption, member states in favour of consolidating the edifice of Europe would have no other choice than to move towards the two-speed Europe (see this heading in bulletin No 9746).
In the EU to be truly independent. More or less as the British Conservative Party was confirming its opposition to the Lisbon Treaty, the former prime minster of Ireland, Garret Fitzgerald, was pointing out the extent to which Europe helped to consolidate his country's real independence. Until it joined the EU in 1973, Ireland had lived in a state of humiliating economic dependency compared to the United Kingdom, and this situation severely restricted the practical exercise of its political sovereignty, legally gained. Also, given the economic advantages resulting from membership (Structural Funds, agricultural policy, etc), Mr Fitzgerald considers that it was by joining the EU that the Irish discovered they were an independent nation, in control of their own destiny. He therefore considers it essential for Ireland to settle the question of its participation in the Lisbon Treaty as quickly as possible, given the British tendency to negotiate a status of mere EU association.
If, on the other hand, the Irish people confirm their rejection, Europe will have to bow before their will, but the countries that wish to move forward will find a way to do so among themselves. There are many obstacles as, in this period, the Eurosceptics are to be found lodged even among the political groups of the European Parliament which have a glorious pro-European history behind them. For example, French Socialist Benoit Hamon who, at national level, had objected to the draft Constitutional Treaty and had then recommended his party's abstention from the Lisbon Treaty, recently showed that the fact of now being at the European Parliament had not made him change his mind. One can only hope that in the Socialist Group he is an exception, an incongruity. (F.R./transl.jl)